The 44th President of the United States

Let’s agree on one thing from the get-go: the '08 presidential election hasn’t started yet. Not in actuality.

Yes, the dialing-for-dollars campaign has been cranking for the better part of a year. And there have been a series of ho-hum debates (with Nielsen ratings rivaling the PBS blockbuster: Watching Paint Dry). But nothing significant has transpired.

Some candidates have begun carving out their tombstones (B-I-D-E-N). Meanwhile, John Edwards has been to Iowa 8,439 times; Mitch Romney is downplaying his Mormon roots; Billary remains an unclassifiable force of nature; and Fred Thompson has finally joined the race. In other words, we’ve made it to the theater for the “coming soon” previews, but the feature presentation is still waiting in the wings.

For frame of reference, at this juncture eight years ago John McCain was the forerunner for the Republican nomination. In 2004 Howard Dean had a double-digit lead in the polls. Last I checked, neither is a leading candidate for West Wing episodes.

In running terms, the presidential race is about five miles into a marathon. More importantly, the guy handing out water at the mile-marker is yelling out a critical reminder: the race hasn’t gone negative yet, AND IT WILL.

The candidates, in aggregate, will have the better part of $1B to spend. That’s nearly twice as much moolah as ’04. And don’t think for a second they won’t aim their dollars below the belt. Before long, there will be mud slinging from every direction.

A candidate’s entire life, personal and political, will be contested with kerosene. Everything is fair game in a loveless, political war, especially assaults on character, electibility, and spirituality. A candidate had best recall every friend, foe, drug, delinquency, and Vulcan mind probe of their life. They/it will resurface.

Granted, the proceedings may be cordial for another couple months while staffers are still collecting paychecks and desperation seems best suited for the back burner. But don’t think for a second this will be a friendly year of campaigning. Before long, all manner of disquiet will arrive on the western front.

These are political veterans who know the ugly truth: negative advertising works. A candidate can expect a bump in the polls as soon as they go negative. Even those who theoretically prefer an amicable fight will scrap their idealism once their strategists mention their forthcoming role as a case study on Six Feet Under. Besides, when push comes to shove there is one image a candidate can’t stomach: envisioning one of their competitors residing on Pennsylvania Ave. in the Casa Blanca.

Knowing as much, my eight-ball is now readying a prediction: after this election cycle “campaign-finance reform” will be regarded in similar vein as “land” on Noah’s Arc (sacred and incomprehensible). In the interim, if you live in one of the following 15 states: OH, FL, PA, MO, WA, WI, WV, AZ, AK, NM, CO, ME, MI, MN, and IA; or if your major television stations feed from those states, prepare to TIVO everything. And I mean everything.

For now, let’s enjoy the last few months of normalcy as Jackson Browne so aptly put it: “before the deluge.” To tide us over, below you'll find ten election anecdotes/observations. This is the first of several entries on the campaign. By all means, please chime in or retort with contrarian views. Working together, perhaps we will uncover a few Iraqi WMDs and help to ensure this government of ours gets as big as possible.

10) Polls Are Misleading
Shouldn't be underestimated. Voters are a sly, circumspect group. They're also influenced by unforeseen and unlikely factors right up until game time. Do not put much faith in early polling (especially now, pre-blood bath). I repeat: early polls are suspect at best.

9) Howard Dean Did Not Implode
Say what you will about his Iowa gruntacular. I’m convinced Howard Dean’s bubble had already burst.

Think about the lay of the land in ‘04: Dean blazed onto the campaign trail as the anti-establishment, anti-Washington crusader. As a result, feed-up liberals gravitated towards his campaign early on in groves. But coming into the Iowa primary, most polls still referenced a large percentage of undecided voters. Most political analysts (I use this term loosely) assumed the undecided voters would end up voting for the nominees in a relatively even-spread fashion.

I think that was an incredibly poor assumption.

People knew about Dean. There was nothing arbitrary or misleading in his gait. And the voters who liked his reform platform were there for him early on. By the time primary voters went to the polls, I think Dean had limited votes left to grab.

Why is this important? Two words: Hillary Clinton. There’s not a person in the country without a predisposed opinion of her. I’ll question anyone who tells me she’s going to pick up lots of votes going forward (anyone selling a Barack Obama nerf sombrero on eBay should now raise their “reserve” price). Also, see #1.

8) Safety First?
An indeterminable number of independent and centrist voters pulled the lever for George W. Bush in ‘04 because they felt “safer” with him in office. Many Americans thought W would do a better job of protecting their families from Bin Laden and his cronies roaming around Fraggle Rock. This reality may not have showed up in exit polls, but it was an important voting issue nonetheless.

Four years later the notion that “Bin Laden will strike again soon" seems less plausible. His unknown, underground status still provokes anxiety, but to a far lesser degree. Accordingly, the “safety” scare card which the Republicans used incessantly and effectively in ’04, probably isn’t a realistic option this go-round.

How many votes might swing blue as a result? My guess is a lot.

7) One and Done
Thirty or forty years ago it was typical for a defeated presidential candidate to mount a second run (Nixon, Stevenson). Today, the double-elimination format isn't as viable.

A modern-day, losing campaign takes too much out of supporters. Losing once is exhausting enough. Only the fanatical and obsessed can ignore the scar tissue, signing on for another go round. Even more important, it’s nearly impossible to raise the ungodly sums of money necessary to make a legitimate, second run.

With these thoughts in mind, assuming meaningful campaign finance reform laws are not enacted, I’m willing to wager all my lunch money that a two-time candidate will never make a serious run for the presidency (a 2008 example being John Edwards). I’ll also predict said candidates will never carry a single, primary state (Edwards included).

You can add this wager to the long list of bets I’ve won in recent years by electing to bet only against myself.

6) Bloomberg is News
In my opinion, the most important peripheral figure in this campaign cycle is hands down, New York City Mayor, Michael Bloomberg. Important to understand, he is doubly dangerous (literally) if he enters the race and wins enough votes to swing a state, without actually carrying the state.

The Dems know there isn’t a scenario under the sun whereby they win the ‘08 election without the state of New York. Accordingly, the DNC has to be fretting a potential showdown with Giuliani. If an incredibly popular Mayor is also on the ballot as a third option: New York in November is gonna look like the O.K. Corral.

A man in Bloomberg’s position, with his cash, supporters, and existing infrastructure, has a whole lot of leverage. Enough leverage to make him the most intriguing 3rd party candidate in modern times. Take it to the bank: this guy will affect the outcome of the ’08 poker game, even if he never plays a hand.

5) The Sunshine State
It’s a crying shame (and ridiculous) we don’t have a popular vote. As the majority of the electoral map grows a darker shade of red/blue, a minuscule number of states/voters now matter. And the number of undecided, electoral states with more than a dozen votes can be counted on one hand. Not surprisingly, federal funding (with noticeable hints of pork loin) allocated to battleground states is escalating at breakneck speed. You’d better believe the interstates in Ohio and Missouri are shining from a new coat or tar about now.

In this realm, we all know about the sacred, electoral triumvirate: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Therein, my gut says Ohio is gonna be tough for either Clinton or Obama. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania feels to me like it's leaning blue (and yes, I’m one of those armchair quarterbacks who rely on “feelings”). In other words, look for the state that brought us the Reality TV sensation, Recount 2000, to be the heart of the storm again.

4) Rockin’ a Few Votes
With each new election cycle the “Rock the Vote” caravans take to the road and capture the candidates shucking corn in Iowa while talking about the invigorated youth of America who are committed to change. Democratic candidates are particularly wed to this stratagem because they know that idealistic, twenty-somethings savor the Jack and the Beanstalk banter. But at the end of the day, the young roosters do not come to roost.

A 50-year old American is 50% more lightly to vote than a 20 year-old. Voter turnout increases with every passing decade until age 70, before decreasing again (likely due to decreasing health and/or difficulty getting to the polls).

Some might argue that younger, motivated voters do the heavy-lifting on campaigns and thereby have an implied value of more than one vote (fundraising activities, canvassing, driving voters to the polls, etc.). There might be some truth to that. But the election-day song remains the same: aim the messaging for an older audience.

3) “Down Goes Frazier! Down Goes Frazier!”
The advent of 24-hour news changed politics forever. A candidate can’t sleep, breathe, or meow without having the moment replayed on the news.

Mistakes, in particular, garner attention. And with the cameras always rolling, disjointed remarks are inevitable (“I actually did vote for the $87 billion, before I voted against it.”). A candidate’s goal should be to limit mistakes, rebound quickly after missteps, and avoid the knockout punch (note to candidates: referring to a rally attendee as “macaque” will send you flying to the mat).

Obviously, bringing the “A Game” every day is easier said than done. With every election cycle, some candidate's “F Game” manages to sneak in for a notorious appearance. And when that happens, YouTube will be there to commemorate the occasion. The only question that remains: who will hit the canvas this year?

2) Border Ballots
Washington’s piping-hot battle over immigration has become the “avoid at all costs” topic along the Democratic campaign trail (see Merriam-Webster, pg 262: bubonic plague).

A recent poll by Rasmussen Reports found that by a 71% to 16% margin, voters favor a proposal that would require all foreign visitors to carry a universal identification card (as proposed by GOP hopeful, Rudy Guiliana). By a 56% to 31% margin, voters want the government to continue building a fence along the Mexican border. None of which bodes well for most Democratic candidates who generally support immigration rights.

In 2004 measures prohibiting same sex marriage were on the ballot in many states. It was a very effective means of increasing voter turnout in conservative states. Look for Republicans to make immigration their preservationist issue this go-round. The majority of American citizens already appear to be in their court.

1) Everybody Loves a Winner
When voters head for the primary polls this winter they’ll each by asking: “can my candidate win in November?” This is especially true for Democrats, whose eight years with W have felt like 16 too many. As much as Richardson or Huckabee may appeal at heart, when push comes to shove, most voters want to align with a candidate who’s got a realistic shot at the White House.

In this realm, look for Barack Obama to attack Hillary’s chances in the general election (despite her perceived edge in head-to-head polls with Republicans). If Barack can convince voters that Hillary’s polarizing image won’t play in Peoria come November, the democratic primary may still have a few surprises in store.