20) Arni's
In the almanac of "historic Knobs' landmarks," Arni's might get top billing. Located in the heart of downtown, Arni's has been serving up the best 'za in Floyd County for generations (why bother getting specific with our dates).
Go to Arni's often enough and you're guaranteed to bump into Fuzzy Zoeller and other local celebrities, a term I use loosely. You can't go wrong with any topping at Arni's but the ground-up pepperoni is the bomb.
Whit: I'll meet you at Arni's.
19) Hairmaster Ron
Any "best of" list has to start off with a bang and then take it up another notch, and this Highlander stalwart has been bringing the thunder, with the clippers, for as long as anyone can remember. Stop in and see Ron or Anita and you’ll not only get a great trim, but also catch up on all things Knobs.
Rom = as fine a representative for the Knobs as you'll ever find.
18) Highlander Point
Every town needs a point of congregation, and every congregation deserves a good plot of asphalt. Highlander Point is not only the epicenter of the Knobs, but it’s also the biggest plot of pavement in Eden.
Home to Hairmaster Ron, Papa John’s Tumbleweed, DQ, and Sam’s, Highlander Point is to Knobbers what the intersection of 1st and 1st in New York is to Cosmo Kramer: “the nexus of the universe.”
17) "WannaBes"
In southern Indiana the wannabes include Red Devils, Panthers, Pioneers, and Bull Dogs. Especially Bull Dogs. The wannabes are locals who grew up wishing they could be Floyd Central Highlanders, but they got shafted: their parents didn't pick a lot on the sunny side of the street.
Wannabes: I wish you better luck in the next lifetime.
16) All Hail Caesar
In what was arguably the dumbest decision in the history of Floyd County, in 1993 the county commission rejected a proposal which would allow riverboat gambling in the county. The Commission was worried about an influx of sinning gamblers, but the strategy backfired: Floyd County’s dismissal paved the way for neighboring Harrison County to welcome Caesar’s Casino about 100 feet beyond the Floyd county line.
And now, when I’m home, my antes at Caesar’s promote Harrison County schools, as opposed to the kids in Floyd. Local Government, you gotta love it.
15) Small Town Alert: Corydon, Indiana
Visitors in search of a day trip from mecca (Knobs) will find Indiana's first capitol, Corydon, a mere twelve miles down the road. When I was growing up, Corydon was synonymous with the movies; it was the closest cinema in the heartland. Corydon is also home to two of So. Indiana's finest residents, Fred and Sabrina Haas, who now reside two blocks from the town square.
Another great town in Southern Indiana. A seemingly endless list.
14) The Five Families
The Italian Mafia had the fabled five families. In the Knobs we’re sans Mafia, but we still have the five families. And if your roots are truly Knobs, you are related to, or will be related to, one of the five: Naville, Loftus, Jacobi, Bierman, or Libbs.
13) WNAS -- 88.1 FM
Broadcasting live since May of 1949, WNAS is the oldest student run radio station in the state (think Donna and David working the dials on 90210). The air time at WNAS is shared between Floyd Central and New Albany, and back in the day we only had about 50 CDs to choose from -- Queen & Pearl Jam got a lot of airtime.
It’s mystifying to think that immature, mumbling teenagers are given access to the airwaves. Thankfully, our ratings didn't warrant much attention from the FCC, thus giving me and Port, my senior year co-host, an uncensored mic to win over listeners by the twos and threes.
The air waves will never be the same.
12) The Two Bobs
In high school you hate most teachers, admire a few, and respect even fewer. But at Floyd Central I had to admire Bob Singleton for his good-natured do-nothingness, and I respected Bob Youngblood (Bobby Y to the students) for his dedication to literature and patience with my 7th period clan. Thanks to Youngblood’s AP English Class, I developed a lifelong affinity and dedication to reading.
My gratitude: it overflows.
11) Plum Hill
Looking down on the bright lights, big city of Louisville, Plum Hill offers one of the best views in Middle America. Admittedly, trespassers are strongly discouraged, as the affluent homeowners on the Hill value privacy. And yet, virtually every sixteen year-old with a car and an eye on getting to second base has done battle with the subdivision's security patrolman.
Damn if I didn’t blow it big-time with Wendy Miller back in the day when I had a lay-up atop Plum Hill. Truly, some misfires stay with you forever.
10) The Wine of the Month: Huber's "Knobstone Reserve"
If you want traditional port, go to Portugal. If you want a port aged in oak barrels and sweetened with plums and hints of Knobs, go to Huber’s. In addition to Knobstone Reserve, Huber’s is known for their award-winning sweet and fruit flavored wines, including Blackberry, Strawberry, and Sweet Marcella.
Located in picturesque Starlight, IN -- a mere 15 minutes from Highlander Point -- Huber’s is a worthwhile stopover for anyone passing through the Knobs.
9) Corner Kitchen
You've got to respect a local diner that hosts weekly euchre tourneys in a barely lit, ultra smoky back room. When the typical player in said tourney is a 70 year-old female chimney who tells you to pick up any Jack that's turned over to prevent you from going alone, then you’ve stumbled onto something unique.
Warning: if you don't bring your A game; grandma will laugh your euchre skills right out of the Kitchen.
8) Valley View Golf Club
The number of rounds I’ve played at Valley View is probably a five-digit number. For the better part of a decade growing up, 36 holes a day was more/less a given during the summer. And the bar at Valley View might as well be Cheers; everyone knows your name (and every parcel of your life).
If I ever move back to utopia, my first down payment won’t be for a home, but for a membership at the View.
7) Sammy O’s
Sammy O’s is the Knobs' version of Mo’s Tavern (where the beer flows like wine). No additional description needed.
6) Berry Twist
Some wanna be Knobbers would claim that Polly Freeze is the best local ice cream shop. I'm here to tell you, those hill jacks are wrong. In the land of milk and cream, it's Berry Twist or bust.
Plus, BT was once sponsor to my 4 win, 12 loss little league team. Free cones after the game and the best looking Highlanders working the order window all summer ("I get older, they stay the same age."). The strawberry shakes were off the charts.
I HEART Berry Twist.
5) The Bob Caple Quote of the Month
"Ain't no horse that can't be rode. Ain't no cowboy that can't be throwed."
4) The Georgetown Drive-In
City life affords you a lot of opportunities, but you miss out on some options that are 110% rural. And nothing says rural America like a good double-screen drive-in.
Truthfully, I can’t remember a single movie I saw there, other than Jurassic Park. But then again, most pubescent memories from the movies aren't focused on the Oscars.
3) Harvest Homecoming
This local October festival brings all the rides and elephant ears standard with the fair. And right down the street the Culbertson Mansion used to host as wicked a haunted house as one could ever hope to find. But admittedly, the real action is in the beer garden, where you’re guaranteed to see a few people you genuinely miss, and about a thousand you could live forever without.
It's one of those facts of life: any harvest, or homecoming, is more memorable when drunk Knobbers are in the mix.
2) Churchill Downs
True, Churchill is located in a southern suburb of the Knobs, Louisville. But indirectly Churchill is the reason I’m a Knobber, so it’s going on the list (my dad had to live near a horse racing track). Plus, I love everything about Churchill.
Nothing says home like the Twin Spires and a mint julep on the first weekend in May. Beyond my friends and family, this is what I miss most about Louisville.
1) The Queso at Tumbleweed
If you’re sitting in the #1 slot on this list, you are a pre-approved candidate as the eighth natural wonder of the world. Said another way, I don’t think there’s a better queso dipping sauce on the planet. At the Weed I even get my chimichanga queso style; it’s impossible to get enough of this cheesy delight.
My mouth waters, and waters, and waters.
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Post-Derby Blues
The week after Derby is always tough.
There's an annual adrenaline rush leading up to 6:00 pm on the first Saturday in May. After the race, a natural come-down.
This year the excitement and euphoria at Churchill lost altitude in a hurry when the ultra-game filly, Eight Belles, broke down. From there it didn't take long for advocacy groups like PETA to cry foul.
On the one hand, I understand PETA's position. Advocacy is all about public relations, and often times you have to scream just to be heard. But when you scream for the sake of would-be headlines, you sacrifice understanding the context of a situation.
And in Eight Belles case, the context is everything.
When Eight Belles broke both of her front ankles after the finish line on Saturday and had to be euthanized, it was a freak accident, nothing more. I have watched at least 10,000 horse races in my life, and this is the only time I've seen a horse put-down due to an injury that occurred past the wire.
Thoroughbreds are breed, born, and live to race. Ask any trainer about the way a horse's ears perk up on race day or the extra life in their gallop right before a race. Thoroughbreds know when they're entering the arena, and they chomp at the bit (literally) until the starting gates open up.
I would also remind PETA of the following: most thoroughbreds are superbly (and ethically!) cared for by barn hands and trainers. Horsemen aren't hunters or profiteers. Horse racing is a money-losing endeavor for the vast majority of owners, but they forge ahead anyway for a singular reason: they love the animals.
But inevitably, when 1200 pounds are carried atop four scrawny legs, fatal missteps will happen. Missteps happen on bluegrass horse farms, and they happen at Churchill Downs.
Would Eight Belles be alive today had she not raced on Saturday? Sure. Do freak accidents happen which kill people every day: you'd better believe it.
Accordingly, I side with those inclined to celebrate Eight Belles' nearly unblemished career -- even if cut short. If there's one thing I'm sure of it's that this filly deserves our praise.
She was so superb on Saturday, burying all but one of the boys. Truthfully, I didn't think she was good enough to handle the colts.
She was. And then some.
As for the lone horse that beat the filly, he could be horse racing's first king in thirty years: worthy of the Triple Crown.
I watched the race from my standard spot by the Jumbotron in turn one on Saturday. When I saw Big Brown relax just off the lead and cruise through the opening half-mile I turned to the guy next to me and said, "this race is over."
Was it ever.
Only one horse in the last 133 years had won from the #20 post; that didn't deter Big Brown. No horse in the last ninety years had won the Derby after only three lifetime starts, but lack of experience wasn't an issue for him either.
Big Brown made me pay for betting against him. He won going away. What's even more scary, he did it with ease.
Meanwhile, I'd be surprised in the other pre-race favorites, Pryo and Colonel John, opt for another round with Big Brown in the Preakness. The took their shot and got throttled; I bet their barns will save them for later in the year.
Regardless of who tempts the starting gate in ten days time, Big Brown is assured of being a gynormous favorite. He has earned it and then some; he's the hottest ticket on dirt.
Admittedly, looking ahead in this sport is asking for trouble. A racing season can unfold in a million different directions. But kids dream about Santa in March, just as my thoughts drift to Santa Anita this October.
If Big Brown continues to demolish this crop of three year-olds and wins the Triple Crown, his year will have only begun. At Santa Anita, in the Breeder's Cup Classic, he'll face a proven superstar who has been toying with the best horses in the world.
That's right, Curlin waits in the wings.
Mark my words: if we get an undefeated Big Brown vs. Curlin in the Breeder's Cup Classic, it will be the biggest show-down in racing in 30 years. Shiver me timbers what a prospect.
A word to the wise: look into travel arrangements now.
There's an annual adrenaline rush leading up to 6:00 pm on the first Saturday in May. After the race, a natural come-down.
This year the excitement and euphoria at Churchill lost altitude in a hurry when the ultra-game filly, Eight Belles, broke down. From there it didn't take long for advocacy groups like PETA to cry foul.
On the one hand, I understand PETA's position. Advocacy is all about public relations, and often times you have to scream just to be heard. But when you scream for the sake of would-be headlines, you sacrifice understanding the context of a situation.
And in Eight Belles case, the context is everything.
When Eight Belles broke both of her front ankles after the finish line on Saturday and had to be euthanized, it was a freak accident, nothing more. I have watched at least 10,000 horse races in my life, and this is the only time I've seen a horse put-down due to an injury that occurred past the wire.
Thoroughbreds are breed, born, and live to race. Ask any trainer about the way a horse's ears perk up on race day or the extra life in their gallop right before a race. Thoroughbreds know when they're entering the arena, and they chomp at the bit (literally) until the starting gates open up.
I would also remind PETA of the following: most thoroughbreds are superbly (and ethically!) cared for by barn hands and trainers. Horsemen aren't hunters or profiteers. Horse racing is a money-losing endeavor for the vast majority of owners, but they forge ahead anyway for a singular reason: they love the animals.
But inevitably, when 1200 pounds are carried atop four scrawny legs, fatal missteps will happen. Missteps happen on bluegrass horse farms, and they happen at Churchill Downs.
Would Eight Belles be alive today had she not raced on Saturday? Sure. Do freak accidents happen which kill people every day: you'd better believe it.
Accordingly, I side with those inclined to celebrate Eight Belles' nearly unblemished career -- even if cut short. If there's one thing I'm sure of it's that this filly deserves our praise.
She was so superb on Saturday, burying all but one of the boys. Truthfully, I didn't think she was good enough to handle the colts.
She was. And then some.
As for the lone horse that beat the filly, he could be horse racing's first king in thirty years: worthy of the Triple Crown.
I watched the race from my standard spot by the Jumbotron in turn one on Saturday. When I saw Big Brown relax just off the lead and cruise through the opening half-mile I turned to the guy next to me and said, "this race is over."
Was it ever.
Only one horse in the last 133 years had won from the #20 post; that didn't deter Big Brown. No horse in the last ninety years had won the Derby after only three lifetime starts, but lack of experience wasn't an issue for him either.
Big Brown made me pay for betting against him. He won going away. What's even more scary, he did it with ease.
Meanwhile, I'd be surprised in the other pre-race favorites, Pryo and Colonel John, opt for another round with Big Brown in the Preakness. The took their shot and got throttled; I bet their barns will save them for later in the year.
Regardless of who tempts the starting gate in ten days time, Big Brown is assured of being a gynormous favorite. He has earned it and then some; he's the hottest ticket on dirt.
Admittedly, looking ahead in this sport is asking for trouble. A racing season can unfold in a million different directions. But kids dream about Santa in March, just as my thoughts drift to Santa Anita this October.
If Big Brown continues to demolish this crop of three year-olds and wins the Triple Crown, his year will have only begun. At Santa Anita, in the Breeder's Cup Classic, he'll face a proven superstar who has been toying with the best horses in the world.
That's right, Curlin waits in the wings.
Mark my words: if we get an undefeated Big Brown vs. Curlin in the Breeder's Cup Classic, it will be the biggest show-down in racing in 30 years. Shiver me timbers what a prospect.
A word to the wise: look into travel arrangements now.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
The Annual Hundo
This day needs no introduction. Let’s get down to business.
As mentioned on Monday, this is going to be one tough race to bet, so I won't be surprised (at all) if my tri wheel comes up empty handed. BUT, I'm going to play a combination that will pay a redonkulous amount if it comes to frution: got a feeling it's gonna be one of those days. Then I’ll back up my big wheel with a few exactas and by circling a few horses on their own.
Churchill beckons so without further adieu, here’s my run-down of the entrants and an overview of how I’m likely to dish out my 100 bones. Enjoy the coverage on ESPN and NBC.
1) Cool Coal Man
Was last seen lolly-gagging with Pyro towards the rear of the Bluegrass; I think it’s safe to say he didn’t take to the Polytrack. Owns a couple of solid Beyer’s and his Fountain of Youth would have you believe he belongs. He has the right running style for the Derby, but the added distance is a question. Not convinced he’s at the top of his game either.
I’ve already got Coal in a Derby Future Pool at 25-1, which offers me a hedge if I leave him out of my trifecta wheels. Overall, skeptical of this fossil fuel. Not a Red Cent (NRC).
2) Tale of Ekati
Ekati beat the Juvenile Champ, War Pass, to win the Wood four weeks ago. But that race ain’t what it used to be. And they came home incredibly slowly that day – over 41 seconds for the final three furlongs.
Hasn’t run a good race outside of New York and not convinced that’s about to change. Willing to walk away empty handed if it does. NRC.
3) Anak Nakal
Was full-steam ahead at the end of ’07, but hasn’t lived up to the hype in ’08. I think “anak nakal” must translate to “drinks lots of Bud Heavies” in Malay, because there’s really no explaining his abysmal record this year.
If you’re looking for an angle on a longshot, there are a couple of plays: 1) his best race was at Churchill and 2) I doubt Zito would bring Anak to Kentucky just to check out the Spires. A couple of legitimate pluses for somebody who’ll be 75-1. But I can’t jump onboard someone who hasn’t hit the board all year. NRC.
4) Court Vision
There are only a few “knowns” in this Derby. Amongst them: Big Brown is going straight to the front of the pack, and Court Vision is going straight to the rear. This guy starts off really slow.
But that’s not all bad in a ten furlong race that packs a lot of heat on the front end. And if you’re gonna try and circle the field, you’d prefer to save ground early. To that end, the #4 post is about as good as it gets.
He has only run twice in ‘08, which I like with a longshot: there could be untapped potential in the tank. Owns a bullet workout over the Churchill track, has never missed the board, adds blinkers for the big one, and Mott is one of my favorite trainers. That’s a lot to like for somebody who figures to be 18-1.
He may not steal all the marbles, and if the track stays muddy, it certainly won’t help his cause. If it hardens up, could definitely envision him nabbing a piece. In other words, my pesos start here.
5) Eight Belles
Every Derby deserves a filly; it’s more fun when a girl tries to beat the boys. And this year we’ve got a live one: Eight Belles is no slouch. One of a select grouping in here that own a 100 Beyer, and you can’t knock her record either: she hasn’t been beat this year.
When you consider the mediocrity of this group of colts, I can’t fault her connections for bypassing the Oaks in favor of the Derby. Her stablemate ran huge yesterday, and Belles appears the better of the two.
On the flip side, she’s never run more than 8.5 furlongs and never seen pace like this. Only three fillies in 133 years have come home first, and I’m not convinced the stars are aligned for a fourth. Will likely play a few sidebets in case history proves me wrong but planning to focus my dinero elsewhere.
6) Z Fortune
Asmussen has been chatting up this guy’s talent all spring, but Z didn’t show a lick of it until April. Finally came to life in the Arkansas Derby four weeks ago, but you sure would have liked to see him pass Gayego – the race was Z’s for the taking.
Has already raced five times since December which is a little much for my liking. But that 102 Beyer at Oaklawn shouldn’t be overlooked. He also lands one of the hottest jockeys on the planet in Albarado.
Another one that I bet in the Derby Future pool, so I’ve got an insurance policy in case he bests the stampede. Can’t figure out what else to do with him. A very tough call.
7) Big Truck
Played the spoiler in the Tampa Bay Derby when War Pass bonked. That race was Truck’s fourth straight Beyer improvement, but like several others in here, his progress hit the wall in Lexington.
Another trainer who doesn’t typically send colts to Kentucky just to be part of the festivities. Also figures to get an ideal, stalking trip, so the only real question is class. Not sure he can beat this crop, but he will reward backers at a huge price if he does.
Derby wagers pay for Winnebagos because unexpected things happen, and this guy fits the bill. Worth a little love in the bottom of my exotics with sights on a payout with four zeros.
8) Visionaire
The twelve hole is a terrible post for a nine furlong race at Keeneland, and he ended up ten-wide in the stretch (virtually unheard of). So from my perch his Bluegrass wasn’t that bad. Two impressive wins this year, one of which was in the mud, and his late running style figures to be a plus. We also know Matz can get a horse to fire at Churchill; he won with Barbaro two years ago.
Leczano will have to do a better job of saving ground this time around, but if he can, I think Visionaire’s capable of nabbing a piece. More good news: he’s a virtual lock to be underbet.
Similar to Court Vision, I have trouble envisioning him winning it all. But we’re in need of three spots for our trifecta, and I could certainly see him 2nd or 3rd. Planning to include in my wheels.
9) Pyro
We’ve come to this year’s pi entrant: this guy is impossible to solve. But he's a monstrous talent and should come charging; I could certainly envision him wearing roses.
His supporters will throw out his Bluegrass, blaming it on the Poly. I’m tempted to do the same, but his performance that day was so darn bad. The two he beat in the Risen Star have both made it to Kentucky (Z Fortune and Visionaire), but the Louisiana Derby field was one part claimer, three parts jalopy. In other words he hasn't beat much in three months.
Can’t make him the focal point of my wheeling and dealing; can’t fathom leaving him out. A serious factor.
10) Colonel John
He got his act together in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby and ran down BobBlackJack at the wire. If it wasn’t for the final furlong of that race, he’d be 15-1. As is, he’s the second choice in the morning line.
Backers will tell you he’s breed for the distance and should get plenty of pace to run at with Big Brown blazing away on the front. Also, his works in the morning would have you believe he loves the Churchill track. Skeptics will say he hasn’t beaten much, has a mediocre top Beyer, and hasn’t run on dirt.
The Derby is about picking the right horses and looking for value; he certainly doesn’t represent the latter. But in a race this wide open can’t omit a talent like this who likes the local surface. Deserving of attention.
11) Z Humor
This guy has been improving all spring and another move forward in him could nab him a piece. But Humor has been away from the winner’s circle all of ’08, so I’m willing to pass today and see if he blossoms farther down the road. NRC.
12) Smooth Air
His Florida Derby was one of the strongest races on paper all spring but few will take notice because Big Brown was also in the race (and much the best). Air figures to be in perfect position in this one, but that doesn’t mean we should jump onboard.
Of all the entrants, this guy’s connections worry me the most. Bennie Stutts trains and Manollo Cruz will ride: never heard of either of ‘em. And this colt was fighting a fever and questionable to run when the week began.
Under other circumstances would have considered him a live longshot. As it is, I’m looking for cleaner air. NRC.
13) Bob Black Jack
The first of the speed horses with the rest of the early petrol sitting to his outside. Bob ran the opening quarter under 21 seconds in a six furlong race in January, so he’s certainly capable of fighting Big Brown for the lead if he so chooses. Hoping he does.
He might be a world-class miler, but at 10 furlongs I’m not inclined to double down: this is an incredibly tough spot to stretch beyond your (seeming) best distance. NRC.
14) Monba
Never a factor in the Fountain of Youth, but that didn’t stop Pletcher from entering him in the Bluegrass where he won at 9-1. He got the perfect, stalking trip that day and then snuck by Cowboy Cal on Keeneland’s Poly. Not sure how much praise that deserves.
This guy has plenty of talent and figures worth watching as his career progresses, but there’s something about him that doesn’t sit well with me, and Prado’s defection to Adriano is more than enough to push me over the top: NRC.
15) Adriano
Taking the same route to Churchill as last year’s runner-up, Hard Spun; they both won the Lane’s End as their final prep. Adriano won going away at Turfway and looked impressive doing it, but that was on Poly, and plenty of horsemen think he’s really bred for the turf (not the dirt).
A major talent and wouldn’t be shocked if he’s in contention down the stretch. If he takes to the dirt, the sky is the limit. If not, he’ll likely end up in the rear. Willing to play a side bet in case he fires, will pay handsomely if he does.
16) Dennis of Cork
Uncorked a monster rally to capture the Southwest at Oaklawn, then flopped at even-money in the Illinois Derby. But his connections never wavered on sending him to Kentucky after the Hawthorne stinker, which means they think he belongs.
And instead of resting Denis after Illinois they marched him straight to Churchill, where he’s been working superbly over the local track. He gets Borel in the irons who won the Derby last year on a colt with an eerily similar running style (Street Sense). And this lightly-raced son of also has a win over the Churchill track.
Most of Saturday’s entrants come with question marks; this guy is no different. When you’re looking for longshots in the Derby you have to ask whether his best day could be good worthy of the roses. Inclined to think yes…..and at price. My KEY player.
17) Cowboy Cal
The Bluegrass was his first race off turf, and he passed that test with flying colors. But he set incredibly slow fractions in Lexington and got away with an easy lead. The going won’t be slow on Saturday, and he won’t have the lead (two strikes, three and you’re out).
You have to respect the connections and his driver is as good as they come. But I just can’t envision this race shaping up for him; I’d be shocked if he nabbed a piece. NRC.
18) Recapture the Glory
Lead from wire-to-wire at Hawthorne when Cork mailed it in and earned a big Beyer for his effort. But that track factors early speed in a big time way, and he won’t get to the lead today. All the pace sits around him as well, which makes it that much more likely that he’ll have to press or settle back. Knowing his running style, neither of those sound promising to me. Would be shocked if he recaptured anything other than a post-race walk to the barn. NRC.
19) Gayego
This colt ran 6 ½ furlongs in 1:13 flat as a two-year old, so we know he can crank up the RPMs. He also proved capable of coming from off the pace in those early starts, and that’ll be a requisite today with Big Brown in the mix. Deserves a lot of credit for holding on to win in Arkansas; the 103 Beyer jumps off the page.
Still not convinced this is his preferred distance and there’s a decent chance he’ll be stalking a suicidal clip. Plus, he’s starting in the auxiliary gate with all the speed in the race, hardly ideal.
This colt is a gamer and if he can clear the field with Big Brown, they might finish one, two. If that happens I’ll walk away content and penniless, because it’s not the angle I’m gonna play. Say “adieu” to another player who will draw coinage at the window; start looking at Winnebagos with stainless steel. NRC.
20) Big Brown
Some horses have tactical speed; some horses have “real” speed (if they want the lead, they get the lead). Big Brown leaves the gate like a torpedo firing from a missile silo. I think he’ll get the lead.
In actuality, this superfreak hasn’t even met a competitor yet; the other entrants have been that far behind him in his three starts. He’s also got a terrific trainer in Dutrow who has been emphatic in stating he thinks this colt will win. Throw in Desormeaux, a jockey who has won this before, and there’s a boat load to like.
But Winnebagos don’t start with a big favorite, and this is one tough race to wire ‘em – more so from the #20 hole. I’ll hope history holds and this three-time starter can’t buck the 90-year trend. Will include is some wheels, but his odds and post position don’t warrant more.
$1 tri wheel: 9, 10, & 16 with 4, 8, 9, 10, 16 with 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 16, 20 ($72)
$1 exacta wheel 9, 10, & 20 with 4, 8, and 16 ($9)
$4 win on 16
$8 show on 16
$2 win on 15
$5 show on 4
As mentioned on Monday, this is going to be one tough race to bet, so I won't be surprised (at all) if my tri wheel comes up empty handed. BUT, I'm going to play a combination that will pay a redonkulous amount if it comes to frution: got a feeling it's gonna be one of those days. Then I’ll back up my big wheel with a few exactas and by circling a few horses on their own.
Churchill beckons so without further adieu, here’s my run-down of the entrants and an overview of how I’m likely to dish out my 100 bones. Enjoy the coverage on ESPN and NBC.
1) Cool Coal Man
Was last seen lolly-gagging with Pyro towards the rear of the Bluegrass; I think it’s safe to say he didn’t take to the Polytrack. Owns a couple of solid Beyer’s and his Fountain of Youth would have you believe he belongs. He has the right running style for the Derby, but the added distance is a question. Not convinced he’s at the top of his game either.
I’ve already got Coal in a Derby Future Pool at 25-1, which offers me a hedge if I leave him out of my trifecta wheels. Overall, skeptical of this fossil fuel. Not a Red Cent (NRC).
2) Tale of Ekati
Ekati beat the Juvenile Champ, War Pass, to win the Wood four weeks ago. But that race ain’t what it used to be. And they came home incredibly slowly that day – over 41 seconds for the final three furlongs.
Hasn’t run a good race outside of New York and not convinced that’s about to change. Willing to walk away empty handed if it does. NRC.
3) Anak Nakal
Was full-steam ahead at the end of ’07, but hasn’t lived up to the hype in ’08. I think “anak nakal” must translate to “drinks lots of Bud Heavies” in Malay, because there’s really no explaining his abysmal record this year.
If you’re looking for an angle on a longshot, there are a couple of plays: 1) his best race was at Churchill and 2) I doubt Zito would bring Anak to Kentucky just to check out the Spires. A couple of legitimate pluses for somebody who’ll be 75-1. But I can’t jump onboard someone who hasn’t hit the board all year. NRC.
4) Court Vision
There are only a few “knowns” in this Derby. Amongst them: Big Brown is going straight to the front of the pack, and Court Vision is going straight to the rear. This guy starts off really slow.
But that’s not all bad in a ten furlong race that packs a lot of heat on the front end. And if you’re gonna try and circle the field, you’d prefer to save ground early. To that end, the #4 post is about as good as it gets.
He has only run twice in ‘08, which I like with a longshot: there could be untapped potential in the tank. Owns a bullet workout over the Churchill track, has never missed the board, adds blinkers for the big one, and Mott is one of my favorite trainers. That’s a lot to like for somebody who figures to be 18-1.
He may not steal all the marbles, and if the track stays muddy, it certainly won’t help his cause. If it hardens up, could definitely envision him nabbing a piece. In other words, my pesos start here.
5) Eight Belles
Every Derby deserves a filly; it’s more fun when a girl tries to beat the boys. And this year we’ve got a live one: Eight Belles is no slouch. One of a select grouping in here that own a 100 Beyer, and you can’t knock her record either: she hasn’t been beat this year.
When you consider the mediocrity of this group of colts, I can’t fault her connections for bypassing the Oaks in favor of the Derby. Her stablemate ran huge yesterday, and Belles appears the better of the two.
On the flip side, she’s never run more than 8.5 furlongs and never seen pace like this. Only three fillies in 133 years have come home first, and I’m not convinced the stars are aligned for a fourth. Will likely play a few sidebets in case history proves me wrong but planning to focus my dinero elsewhere.
6) Z Fortune
Asmussen has been chatting up this guy’s talent all spring, but Z didn’t show a lick of it until April. Finally came to life in the Arkansas Derby four weeks ago, but you sure would have liked to see him pass Gayego – the race was Z’s for the taking.
Has already raced five times since December which is a little much for my liking. But that 102 Beyer at Oaklawn shouldn’t be overlooked. He also lands one of the hottest jockeys on the planet in Albarado.
Another one that I bet in the Derby Future pool, so I’ve got an insurance policy in case he bests the stampede. Can’t figure out what else to do with him. A very tough call.
7) Big Truck
Played the spoiler in the Tampa Bay Derby when War Pass bonked. That race was Truck’s fourth straight Beyer improvement, but like several others in here, his progress hit the wall in Lexington.
Another trainer who doesn’t typically send colts to Kentucky just to be part of the festivities. Also figures to get an ideal, stalking trip, so the only real question is class. Not sure he can beat this crop, but he will reward backers at a huge price if he does.
Derby wagers pay for Winnebagos because unexpected things happen, and this guy fits the bill. Worth a little love in the bottom of my exotics with sights on a payout with four zeros.
8) Visionaire
The twelve hole is a terrible post for a nine furlong race at Keeneland, and he ended up ten-wide in the stretch (virtually unheard of). So from my perch his Bluegrass wasn’t that bad. Two impressive wins this year, one of which was in the mud, and his late running style figures to be a plus. We also know Matz can get a horse to fire at Churchill; he won with Barbaro two years ago.
Leczano will have to do a better job of saving ground this time around, but if he can, I think Visionaire’s capable of nabbing a piece. More good news: he’s a virtual lock to be underbet.
Similar to Court Vision, I have trouble envisioning him winning it all. But we’re in need of three spots for our trifecta, and I could certainly see him 2nd or 3rd. Planning to include in my wheels.
9) Pyro
We’ve come to this year’s pi entrant: this guy is impossible to solve. But he's a monstrous talent and should come charging; I could certainly envision him wearing roses.
His supporters will throw out his Bluegrass, blaming it on the Poly. I’m tempted to do the same, but his performance that day was so darn bad. The two he beat in the Risen Star have both made it to Kentucky (Z Fortune and Visionaire), but the Louisiana Derby field was one part claimer, three parts jalopy. In other words he hasn't beat much in three months.
Can’t make him the focal point of my wheeling and dealing; can’t fathom leaving him out. A serious factor.
10) Colonel John
He got his act together in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby and ran down BobBlackJack at the wire. If it wasn’t for the final furlong of that race, he’d be 15-1. As is, he’s the second choice in the morning line.
Backers will tell you he’s breed for the distance and should get plenty of pace to run at with Big Brown blazing away on the front. Also, his works in the morning would have you believe he loves the Churchill track. Skeptics will say he hasn’t beaten much, has a mediocre top Beyer, and hasn’t run on dirt.
The Derby is about picking the right horses and looking for value; he certainly doesn’t represent the latter. But in a race this wide open can’t omit a talent like this who likes the local surface. Deserving of attention.
11) Z Humor
This guy has been improving all spring and another move forward in him could nab him a piece. But Humor has been away from the winner’s circle all of ’08, so I’m willing to pass today and see if he blossoms farther down the road. NRC.
12) Smooth Air
His Florida Derby was one of the strongest races on paper all spring but few will take notice because Big Brown was also in the race (and much the best). Air figures to be in perfect position in this one, but that doesn’t mean we should jump onboard.
Of all the entrants, this guy’s connections worry me the most. Bennie Stutts trains and Manollo Cruz will ride: never heard of either of ‘em. And this colt was fighting a fever and questionable to run when the week began.
Under other circumstances would have considered him a live longshot. As it is, I’m looking for cleaner air. NRC.
13) Bob Black Jack
The first of the speed horses with the rest of the early petrol sitting to his outside. Bob ran the opening quarter under 21 seconds in a six furlong race in January, so he’s certainly capable of fighting Big Brown for the lead if he so chooses. Hoping he does.
He might be a world-class miler, but at 10 furlongs I’m not inclined to double down: this is an incredibly tough spot to stretch beyond your (seeming) best distance. NRC.
14) Monba
Never a factor in the Fountain of Youth, but that didn’t stop Pletcher from entering him in the Bluegrass where he won at 9-1. He got the perfect, stalking trip that day and then snuck by Cowboy Cal on Keeneland’s Poly. Not sure how much praise that deserves.
This guy has plenty of talent and figures worth watching as his career progresses, but there’s something about him that doesn’t sit well with me, and Prado’s defection to Adriano is more than enough to push me over the top: NRC.
15) Adriano
Taking the same route to Churchill as last year’s runner-up, Hard Spun; they both won the Lane’s End as their final prep. Adriano won going away at Turfway and looked impressive doing it, but that was on Poly, and plenty of horsemen think he’s really bred for the turf (not the dirt).
A major talent and wouldn’t be shocked if he’s in contention down the stretch. If he takes to the dirt, the sky is the limit. If not, he’ll likely end up in the rear. Willing to play a side bet in case he fires, will pay handsomely if he does.
16) Dennis of Cork
Uncorked a monster rally to capture the Southwest at Oaklawn, then flopped at even-money in the Illinois Derby. But his connections never wavered on sending him to Kentucky after the Hawthorne stinker, which means they think he belongs.
And instead of resting Denis after Illinois they marched him straight to Churchill, where he’s been working superbly over the local track. He gets Borel in the irons who won the Derby last year on a colt with an eerily similar running style (Street Sense). And this lightly-raced son of also has a win over the Churchill track.
Most of Saturday’s entrants come with question marks; this guy is no different. When you’re looking for longshots in the Derby you have to ask whether his best day could be good worthy of the roses. Inclined to think yes…..and at price. My KEY player.
17) Cowboy Cal
The Bluegrass was his first race off turf, and he passed that test with flying colors. But he set incredibly slow fractions in Lexington and got away with an easy lead. The going won’t be slow on Saturday, and he won’t have the lead (two strikes, three and you’re out).
You have to respect the connections and his driver is as good as they come. But I just can’t envision this race shaping up for him; I’d be shocked if he nabbed a piece. NRC.
18) Recapture the Glory
Lead from wire-to-wire at Hawthorne when Cork mailed it in and earned a big Beyer for his effort. But that track factors early speed in a big time way, and he won’t get to the lead today. All the pace sits around him as well, which makes it that much more likely that he’ll have to press or settle back. Knowing his running style, neither of those sound promising to me. Would be shocked if he recaptured anything other than a post-race walk to the barn. NRC.
19) Gayego
This colt ran 6 ½ furlongs in 1:13 flat as a two-year old, so we know he can crank up the RPMs. He also proved capable of coming from off the pace in those early starts, and that’ll be a requisite today with Big Brown in the mix. Deserves a lot of credit for holding on to win in Arkansas; the 103 Beyer jumps off the page.
Still not convinced this is his preferred distance and there’s a decent chance he’ll be stalking a suicidal clip. Plus, he’s starting in the auxiliary gate with all the speed in the race, hardly ideal.
This colt is a gamer and if he can clear the field with Big Brown, they might finish one, two. If that happens I’ll walk away content and penniless, because it’s not the angle I’m gonna play. Say “adieu” to another player who will draw coinage at the window; start looking at Winnebagos with stainless steel. NRC.
20) Big Brown
Some horses have tactical speed; some horses have “real” speed (if they want the lead, they get the lead). Big Brown leaves the gate like a torpedo firing from a missile silo. I think he’ll get the lead.
In actuality, this superfreak hasn’t even met a competitor yet; the other entrants have been that far behind him in his three starts. He’s also got a terrific trainer in Dutrow who has been emphatic in stating he thinks this colt will win. Throw in Desormeaux, a jockey who has won this before, and there’s a boat load to like.
But Winnebagos don’t start with a big favorite, and this is one tough race to wire ‘em – more so from the #20 hole. I’ll hope history holds and this three-time starter can’t buck the 90-year trend. Will include is some wheels, but his odds and post position don’t warrant more.
$1 tri wheel: 9, 10, & 16 with 4, 8, 9, 10, 16 with 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 16, 20 ($72)
$1 exacta wheel 9, 10, & 20 with 4, 8, and 16 ($9)
$4 win on 16
$8 show on 16
$2 win on 15
$5 show on 4
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