The Dogwoods are blooming, steamboats are preparing to race, and at Churchill Downs, souvenir glasses are being stuffed with six-inch mint leaves and fist-sized balls of ice ("Mint Jewel-Up").
It's Derby week. Christmas in May. And the greatest two minutes in sports are a mere five days away.
I love everything about Louisville this week. From The Mini (i.e. the Derby festival's half-marathon) to the Great Balloon Race to the chuck wagon vendors selling every edible fit for a grill. I also love knowing that 100,000 people will take to Churchill Downs on Friday for the Oaks, the hometown version of the Derby.
Louisville natives have played hookey on Friday for decades but their secret is finally getting out: there's no reason to wait for the colts (on Saturday) when the fillies are just as grand.
I could go on and on about the festivities and the pageantry, but there was plenty of that in last year's entries. Today, there's business before us: it's time to start dissecting this year's race.
Last year featured one of the deepest fields in recent memory. And three legitimate superstars –- Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin' -- crossed the wire one, two, three. Racing enthusiasts can only hope this Derby will compare.
On paper, it doesn't appear likely.
If last year's theme was "depth," this might be the year of the Irish: this crop is awfully green. The contenders look more like juveniles (a juvenile = a two-year old) -- raw, irritable and inconsistent -- than three year-old's blossoming into form. And inherently, that makes this a tough race to handicap.
But to the victors go the spoils, and my gut says this year the spoils will include a lot of Benjamins. And trust me, there's nothing like leaving Churchill with a wad of hundos, knowing that Arni's pizza is waiting for you at home.
So let's talk turkey, starting with the favorite, Big Brown.
Admittedly, some people think that Colonel John, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is a potential co-favorite. Ain't gonna happen.
Big Brown could draw the #20 post, and he'd still get the most action at the parimutuel window. Big Brown's trainer Richard Dutrow, known to be a big bettor, has said that he will personally ensure that Big Brown goes off as the favorite -- such is his confidence in his colt.
I'm not sure Dutrow's pockets are that deep. On site wagering for the Derby will be around ten million bucks, with another 100 million or so wagered via simulcast. Regardless of Dutrow's ante, I think Big Brown is a shoe-in to be the top betting choice. If he draws a decent post, I think he'll be a prohibitive favorite. My guess is 5-2 or 2-1 when all is said and done.
And that means that bettors should be contemplating the UPS refrain, "what can Big Brown do for you," and come to the realization: not much. If my odds are correct, a $2 win bet will only pay $6 or $7. And I'd need 4-1 or more to feel decent about jumping on Brown's bandwagon, which I'm not going to get. So I've got to try and beat him.
A task I take on with pleasure.
The Derby is littered with favorites who have wheeled into Churchill Downs as the "now" horse, only to leave muttering about what could have been. Recent casualties include Point Given, Empire Maker, and Bellamy Road. And horses with early speed, like Big Brown, tend to fare even worse.
The Derby is 10 furlongs (a furling is 1/8 of a mile), which is farther than any of these horses have run. And in previous races they faced ten or twelve horses (at most); on Saturday the field is 20. And that means that speed horses -- those with one gear who go straight to the front -- have to work even harder to clear the pack early on. In turn, they often need an extra oxygen tank when they turn for home.
This is probably the toughest race in racing to lead from wire-to-wire, and yet, that's exactly what Big Brown will try to do.
And if that's not enough, there's also a streak our favorite will have to buck. It has been 90 years since a horse with only three prep races has won the Derby. Curlin' is currently the best horse on the planet, but a year ago, his Derby bid fell short. Like Big Brown, he came to Churchill after only three starts.
Is there any reason to think that Big Brown is better today than Curlin' was a year ago? Maybe, but i'm not convinced.
Still, in the same breath let me also admit this: Big Brown is a deserving favorite. He has been awesome in his three starts and dismantled the field in his final prep, the Florida Derby. He overcame a lousy post in that race, and instead of backing up in the stretch, he pulled away from the competition.
Big Brown is already drawing comparisons to the brilliant 1985 Derby champion, Spend a Buck. If he gets loose on the front end Saturday and cruises through the opening half mile, he'll probably make me pay. But for me, the reward just doesn't justify the risk, so let's plan on seeking alternatives.
My other point of interest to kick-off the Derby banter isn't a horse, but a racing surface: "Polytrack." Two years ago a handful of racetracks began switching over to this synthetic surface because it was softer and (theoretically) more supportive for the 1200 lb. thoroughbreds, racing just a shade under 40 mph.
From a handicapping perspective, what you need to know is this: Polytrack is not dirt. And the Derby is run on dirt. Accordingly, success on Polytrack has to be taken with a grain of salt.
And you'd better note the following prospects, whose best races are all on Polytrack: Adriano, Monba, Cowboy Cal, Colonel John, and Behindatthebar. Meanwhile, Pyro's dismal Bluegrass may have been attributable to his not liking the Polytrack at Keeneland; he has been terrific on dirt (more to contemplate).
Not that I'll be shunning all the Polytrackers; Adriano will get some of my pesos. The good news: I'll implicitly get more bang for buck on Adriano because bettors will be skeptical of his ability on dirt. And you know what, the skeptics may be right; I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a clunker. But I'm still willing to roll the dice.
My final nugget for your consideration as we settle into my favorite week of the year: Derby payouts are big. Sometimes moderately big. Sometimes extremely big.
A $2 winning trifecta bet paid out the following amounts for the last five Derbys: $440 ('07), $11,418 ('06), $66,657 ('05), $987 ('04), and $665 ('03). That means the five year average is over $15K for a $2 bet.
Moral to the story: grab a mint julep, get in line to bet, and prepare to play a bunch of trifecta wheels.
One of them might pay for a Winnebago.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The Monthly Stew
20) The First Saturday in May
We’re quickly approaching the apex of my calendar year: Derby week. No joke, I can almost smell the bourbon (as the men in green aprons yell: “Mint Jewel-Up”). And thanks to the Hennegan brothers, Brad and Mike, a taste of Derby came early this year.
The Hennegans left their jobs for two years to make the documentary, The First Saturday in May, which followed six trainers with horses on the Derby trail including: Michael Matz (Barbaro), Dan Hendricks who is paralyzed from the waist down (Brother Derek), and native to Churchill Downs and ad hoc comedian, Doug O’Neill (Sharp Humor).
The trainers are incredibly candid throughout, and there’s a decent amount of time devoted to the hands which run the barn – footage rarely seen during network broadcasts of the Triple Crown. This film is a must for any thoroughbred racing enthusiast, or anyone merely wanting to see the road to Kentucky.
19) “It’s the difference between....”
In the aforementioned Derby film a reporter asked a Derby attendee why he would go to the trouble of traveling to Kentucky when he could watch the two-minute race on TV. “Stay at home as opposed to come to the Derby?” the attendee replied in bewilderment. “It’s the difference between watching a porno and having sex.”
Brilliant response. I’m definitely reusing it.
18) Hennegoat
This numeral will mean nothing to most of you. But twice last week I encountered references to “Hennegan.” Which in turn made me think about the man, the myth, the collegiate legend: Mike Hennegoat.
If last week had played out differently, I might have (mentally) lost Hennegoat forever. As is, the fire has been relit. And somewhere, sworn to a sacred oath, Hennegoat sleeps knowing the recipe for Dagwood’s special sauce. Damn I’m envious.
17) Speaking of Fraternity Brothers of Yore.....
This stunt might well be the work of Joel Priddy, collaborating with Mr. Anonymous from heaven. God bless them both.
16) Nielsen Households
I can’t go on a trip without “randomly” running into someone I know. It’s ongoing validation for the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon. Heck, I went to Hawaii for Thanksgiving five years ago and from the time I left Chicago, to the time I got back, I ran into five different people from Floyds Knobs (how ‘bout them apples)!!!!
With this Knobs-based analysis in mind, explain my knowing exactly zero people who have ever participated in the Nielsen ratings. And admit it: you don’t know anyone who has either.
If Friday Night Lights hadn’t been renewed for another season, I’d have taken my magnifying glass to this issue in more detail. As is, I’m merely uber skeptical.
15) Small Town Alert: Bardstown, KY
Bardstown, KY will always have a special place in my heart. Federal Hill Mansion in Bardstown inspired Stephen Foster to "My Old Kentucky Home" in 1852.
156 years later, Foster's lyrics will announce the arrival of the world's greatest 3-year old's at Churchill Downs next Saturday for the 134th running of the KY Derby. Anyone who's willing and able, should meet in front of the Jumbotron in turn one.
14)Eat, Pray, Love
Is it mathematically possible for every female between the ages of 28 and 40 to be reading this book? I’m inclined to think yes.
Knowing that publishers love a winning formula, I’m inclined to call Viking Publishing and see if they’ll give me an advance for writing a male equivalency. I’ve even got a title in mind: Stuff My Face, Drink Bud Heavies, and Sleep on Sunday.
13) “Dis”
It’s time to return our attention to neglected words/sayings. Author Adam Gopnik got me refocused on this word, using it in a totally unexpected context which I can't seem to relocate. But in his usage, some inanimate object (maybe a router) dissed another object (maybe a network). It got me to chuckle out loud, while realizing how under appreciated the term is.
I think I'll dis work next week and go to the Derby, where I'll dis Miller Lites in favor of Bud Heavies. Come to think of it, Miller Lite has to be bordering on a lifetime ban from the Chowder.
12) Peter Hessler on China
Staying with recent reads, I’ve recently come across two terrific books on China thanks to The New Yorker’s Beijing correspondent, Peter Hessler. Hessler went to China’s interior with the Peace Corps where he taught English literature to a group of would-be teachers in the small town of Fuling. His tenure there lead him to write River Town, an incredibly insightful and balanced look at life with the people of the Yangtze River.
Hessler's more recent offering, The Oracle Bones, covers more terrain (literally and thematically). The "bones" of reference are actually tortoise shells which contain evidence of written characters dating back to the Shang Dynasty, around 1350 B.C. But much of the book focuses on present-day China -- investigating the economic and societal realities that have come with Opening and Reform -- while leveraging the bones to glance back at China's past.
Both books receive high, high marks.
11) Three Gorges Dam
One of the most intriguing parts of River Town was the section devoted to the Three Gorges Dam project, which began in 1999 and won’t be completed until 2011. The Dam will have 32 generators, each capable of producing 700 MW of power, which is enough to power 350,000 households. The Three Gorges will be six times bigger than Hoover Dam.
More astoundingly, the project will affect the lives of over 360 million people in the Yangtze River Valley, 110 million of whom have to leave their homes due to the newly created reservoir. Can you imagine the U.S. passing legislation that would cause 35% of the country to uproot and leave their home?
I’m gonna go with, “No. Ha-Way. Ho-Say.”
10) The Grape of the Month: Pinot Grigio (Pinot Gris)
It’s April and there are hints of warmer weather in the air; it’s time to bust out a white grape.
Pinot grigio is native to Burgundy (France), but most people probably associate this grape with the light, crisp, inexpensive wines from Italy -- particularly those from the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region. But Pinot grigio/gris is grown the world over, and lately with acclaim in the Willamette (rhymes with “damn it”) Valley in Oregon.
Not as sweet as American Rieslings, not as dry or oaky as Chardonnay, not as citrusy as Sauvignon blancs – Pinot grigio is great option (and safe bet) for warm spring evenings. Good buys include: Cavit ($7), Mezzacorona ($9), King Estate ($12), and Elk Cove (the best $17 you’ll spend this month).
9) Supercentenarians
Edna Parker, the world’s oldest known human, turned 115 last Sunday. Her home? Good old Shelbyville, IN.
Parker is one of 75 known people who are 110 or more – a class known as the supercentenarians. 64 of the 75 supers (my term) are women – a statistic which surprises me not at all.
Let's face it, every time I go to Vision it probably costs me at least one day on the back end of my life. I'm not even going to contemplate the ramifications of Ibiza.
8) Rites of Spring
It's finally starting to feel a little bit like spring. For us Chicagoans, I stress the term "a little."
For me, spring traditions include: Thursday night burgers on the patio at Zella’s, mint juleps at Churchill Downs, & DQ Butterfinger Blizzards. Specific to that last one, why don't DQ workers turn the blizzards upside down any more?!?!? Seriously, I thought we – customers and the $5 an hour drive-up workers – had a universally accepted contract that guaranteed the upside down maneuver in perpetuity.
If this numeral doesn’t have “email advocacy campaign” written all over it, I don’t know what does.
7) FreeRice.com
This is pretty cool means to work on your vocabulary and simultaneously contribute to the fight against world hunger. Big ups to the folks at Poverty.com.
6) The Price of Fuel
To say that gasoline prices have been heading in a northerly direction might be understating things a tad. But I wonder how much extra coinage we’re spending on other consumables due to increased petroleum prices? Let’s face it: any good that gets flown anywhere....any good that is trucked anywhere...any good that is tied to the bumper of a Dong-where-is-my-automobile...is affected by petroleum costs.
I think I’ll start looking into paddle boats as an investment option.
5) Words of Wisdom w/It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Mac: "This music sounds like two whales raping each other."
4) Parrot vs. Parakeet
I just learned that a parrot is really a big parakeet. Everyone else probably knew this factoid already, but I didn't.
Regardless, even more surprising: parakeets are (somehow) semi-prevalent in Brooklyn -- to the point where the city of New York tried to kill them off in the 1970s. Apparently parakeets like to build nests on high-voltage power poles and were rumored to carry psittacosis (no idea what that is...sounds infectious). But the city lost the eradication battle; the first city parakeets live in.
Trees, parakeets, immigrants: is there anything that doesn’t grow in Brooklyn?
3) Another Bulls Eye for El Bulli
For the 3rd consecutive year Chef-patron Ferran Adrià’s Spanish sensation, El Bulli, reigns atop the S. Pelligrino’s “World’s 50 Top Restaurants.” Known for its unwavering commitment to culinary innovation, the menu regularly boasts eclectic creations like snail porridge, egg and bacon ice cream, cherries wrapped in pig fat, and more recently, tomato cookies.
Two kitchens down the street from Chez Fields also made the list: Alinea (#21) and Charlie Trotter’s (#38). Two world class options in my hood, and still I opt for Totino’s a la pepperoni.
2) The Sexiest Woman Alive....
Is Megan Fox? Apparently that's the verdict after 9.7 million votes were tallied on FHM.
Be that as it may, I've never heard of Megan Fox! Who are these voters? I thought Gore had trouble in Florida; this is anarchy.
Give me Alba or give me death. Or if I’m being totally honest - based on the pic of this Keeley Hazell chic at number three – give me Alba or Hazell...or death.
1) A Month-Long Devotion
In Celebration of the Derby and the glorious month of May, the next month de Chowder will be devoted to the ponies (i.e. all things Derby) and the Knobs (i.e. the utopia which overlooks all things Derby). Trifecta wheels, quizzes about Southern Indiana, and guest bloggers discussing stints in the Knobs: they are all on deck in these pages.
So sit back and enjoy; everything has a rosier tint in May.
We’re quickly approaching the apex of my calendar year: Derby week. No joke, I can almost smell the bourbon (as the men in green aprons yell: “Mint Jewel-Up”). And thanks to the Hennegan brothers, Brad and Mike, a taste of Derby came early this year.
The Hennegans left their jobs for two years to make the documentary, The First Saturday in May, which followed six trainers with horses on the Derby trail including: Michael Matz (Barbaro), Dan Hendricks who is paralyzed from the waist down (Brother Derek), and native to Churchill Downs and ad hoc comedian, Doug O’Neill (Sharp Humor).
The trainers are incredibly candid throughout, and there’s a decent amount of time devoted to the hands which run the barn – footage rarely seen during network broadcasts of the Triple Crown. This film is a must for any thoroughbred racing enthusiast, or anyone merely wanting to see the road to Kentucky.
19) “It’s the difference between....”
In the aforementioned Derby film a reporter asked a Derby attendee why he would go to the trouble of traveling to Kentucky when he could watch the two-minute race on TV. “Stay at home as opposed to come to the Derby?” the attendee replied in bewilderment. “It’s the difference between watching a porno and having sex.”
Brilliant response. I’m definitely reusing it.
18) Hennegoat
This numeral will mean nothing to most of you. But twice last week I encountered references to “Hennegan.” Which in turn made me think about the man, the myth, the collegiate legend: Mike Hennegoat.
If last week had played out differently, I might have (mentally) lost Hennegoat forever. As is, the fire has been relit. And somewhere, sworn to a sacred oath, Hennegoat sleeps knowing the recipe for Dagwood’s special sauce. Damn I’m envious.
17) Speaking of Fraternity Brothers of Yore.....
This stunt might well be the work of Joel Priddy, collaborating with Mr. Anonymous from heaven. God bless them both.
16) Nielsen Households
I can’t go on a trip without “randomly” running into someone I know. It’s ongoing validation for the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon. Heck, I went to Hawaii for Thanksgiving five years ago and from the time I left Chicago, to the time I got back, I ran into five different people from Floyds Knobs (how ‘bout them apples)!!!!
With this Knobs-based analysis in mind, explain my knowing exactly zero people who have ever participated in the Nielsen ratings. And admit it: you don’t know anyone who has either.
If Friday Night Lights hadn’t been renewed for another season, I’d have taken my magnifying glass to this issue in more detail. As is, I’m merely uber skeptical.
15) Small Town Alert: Bardstown, KY
Bardstown, KY will always have a special place in my heart. Federal Hill Mansion in Bardstown inspired Stephen Foster to "My Old Kentucky Home" in 1852.
156 years later, Foster's lyrics will announce the arrival of the world's greatest 3-year old's at Churchill Downs next Saturday for the 134th running of the KY Derby. Anyone who's willing and able, should meet in front of the Jumbotron in turn one.
14)Eat, Pray, Love
Is it mathematically possible for every female between the ages of 28 and 40 to be reading this book? I’m inclined to think yes.
Knowing that publishers love a winning formula, I’m inclined to call Viking Publishing and see if they’ll give me an advance for writing a male equivalency. I’ve even got a title in mind: Stuff My Face, Drink Bud Heavies, and Sleep on Sunday.
13) “Dis”
It’s time to return our attention to neglected words/sayings. Author Adam Gopnik got me refocused on this word, using it in a totally unexpected context which I can't seem to relocate. But in his usage, some inanimate object (maybe a router) dissed another object (maybe a network). It got me to chuckle out loud, while realizing how under appreciated the term is.
I think I'll dis work next week and go to the Derby, where I'll dis Miller Lites in favor of Bud Heavies. Come to think of it, Miller Lite has to be bordering on a lifetime ban from the Chowder.
12) Peter Hessler on China
Staying with recent reads, I’ve recently come across two terrific books on China thanks to The New Yorker’s Beijing correspondent, Peter Hessler. Hessler went to China’s interior with the Peace Corps where he taught English literature to a group of would-be teachers in the small town of Fuling. His tenure there lead him to write River Town, an incredibly insightful and balanced look at life with the people of the Yangtze River.
Hessler's more recent offering, The Oracle Bones, covers more terrain (literally and thematically). The "bones" of reference are actually tortoise shells which contain evidence of written characters dating back to the Shang Dynasty, around 1350 B.C. But much of the book focuses on present-day China -- investigating the economic and societal realities that have come with Opening and Reform -- while leveraging the bones to glance back at China's past.
Both books receive high, high marks.
11) Three Gorges Dam
One of the most intriguing parts of River Town was the section devoted to the Three Gorges Dam project, which began in 1999 and won’t be completed until 2011. The Dam will have 32 generators, each capable of producing 700 MW of power, which is enough to power 350,000 households. The Three Gorges will be six times bigger than Hoover Dam.
More astoundingly, the project will affect the lives of over 360 million people in the Yangtze River Valley, 110 million of whom have to leave their homes due to the newly created reservoir. Can you imagine the U.S. passing legislation that would cause 35% of the country to uproot and leave their home?
I’m gonna go with, “No. Ha-Way. Ho-Say.”
10) The Grape of the Month: Pinot Grigio (Pinot Gris)
It’s April and there are hints of warmer weather in the air; it’s time to bust out a white grape.
Pinot grigio is native to Burgundy (France), but most people probably associate this grape with the light, crisp, inexpensive wines from Italy -- particularly those from the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region. But Pinot grigio/gris is grown the world over, and lately with acclaim in the Willamette (rhymes with “damn it”) Valley in Oregon.
Not as sweet as American Rieslings, not as dry or oaky as Chardonnay, not as citrusy as Sauvignon blancs – Pinot grigio is great option (and safe bet) for warm spring evenings. Good buys include: Cavit ($7), Mezzacorona ($9), King Estate ($12), and Elk Cove (the best $17 you’ll spend this month).
9) Supercentenarians
Edna Parker, the world’s oldest known human, turned 115 last Sunday. Her home? Good old Shelbyville, IN.
Parker is one of 75 known people who are 110 or more – a class known as the supercentenarians. 64 of the 75 supers (my term) are women – a statistic which surprises me not at all.
Let's face it, every time I go to Vision it probably costs me at least one day on the back end of my life. I'm not even going to contemplate the ramifications of Ibiza.
8) Rites of Spring
It's finally starting to feel a little bit like spring. For us Chicagoans, I stress the term "a little."
For me, spring traditions include: Thursday night burgers on the patio at Zella’s, mint juleps at Churchill Downs, & DQ Butterfinger Blizzards. Specific to that last one, why don't DQ workers turn the blizzards upside down any more?!?!? Seriously, I thought we – customers and the $5 an hour drive-up workers – had a universally accepted contract that guaranteed the upside down maneuver in perpetuity.
If this numeral doesn’t have “email advocacy campaign” written all over it, I don’t know what does.
7) FreeRice.com
This is pretty cool means to work on your vocabulary and simultaneously contribute to the fight against world hunger. Big ups to the folks at Poverty.com.
6) The Price of Fuel
To say that gasoline prices have been heading in a northerly direction might be understating things a tad. But I wonder how much extra coinage we’re spending on other consumables due to increased petroleum prices? Let’s face it: any good that gets flown anywhere....any good that is trucked anywhere...any good that is tied to the bumper of a Dong-where-is-my-automobile...is affected by petroleum costs.
I think I’ll start looking into paddle boats as an investment option.
5) Words of Wisdom w/It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Mac: "This music sounds like two whales raping each other."
4) Parrot vs. Parakeet
I just learned that a parrot is really a big parakeet. Everyone else probably knew this factoid already, but I didn't.
Regardless, even more surprising: parakeets are (somehow) semi-prevalent in Brooklyn -- to the point where the city of New York tried to kill them off in the 1970s. Apparently parakeets like to build nests on high-voltage power poles and were rumored to carry psittacosis (no idea what that is...sounds infectious). But the city lost the eradication battle; the first city parakeets live in.
Trees, parakeets, immigrants: is there anything that doesn’t grow in Brooklyn?
3) Another Bulls Eye for El Bulli
For the 3rd consecutive year Chef-patron Ferran Adrià’s Spanish sensation, El Bulli, reigns atop the S. Pelligrino’s “World’s 50 Top Restaurants.” Known for its unwavering commitment to culinary innovation, the menu regularly boasts eclectic creations like snail porridge, egg and bacon ice cream, cherries wrapped in pig fat, and more recently, tomato cookies.
Two kitchens down the street from Chez Fields also made the list: Alinea (#21) and Charlie Trotter’s (#38). Two world class options in my hood, and still I opt for Totino’s a la pepperoni.
2) The Sexiest Woman Alive....
Is Megan Fox? Apparently that's the verdict after 9.7 million votes were tallied on FHM.
Be that as it may, I've never heard of Megan Fox! Who are these voters? I thought Gore had trouble in Florida; this is anarchy.
Give me Alba or give me death. Or if I’m being totally honest - based on the pic of this Keeley Hazell chic at number three – give me Alba or Hazell...or death.
1) A Month-Long Devotion
In Celebration of the Derby and the glorious month of May, the next month de Chowder will be devoted to the ponies (i.e. all things Derby) and the Knobs (i.e. the utopia which overlooks all things Derby). Trifecta wheels, quizzes about Southern Indiana, and guest bloggers discussing stints in the Knobs: they are all on deck in these pages.
So sit back and enjoy; everything has a rosier tint in May.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)