Bold Predictions from the NFL

I’m losing patience with the NFL studio crews on CBS and Fox. Granted, both crews are still preferred to the Collinsworth + Costas “Football Night in America” which feels like I’ve teleported onto a futuristic NBC set which is trying to make football suck ass. That being said, CBS and FOX are also treading on thin ice.

My major gripe is the praise which spews ad nauseam when a host picks an unsurprising winner. For example, Bill Cowher’s lightning bolt last week that the Steelers (at home, - 6) were gonna take it to the Seahawks. During the post-game show I thought Marino was going to throw J.B. an Isotoner glove so that they could simultaneously pat Cowher’s ass. The homage to Cowher lasted a solid ten minutes, by which point I was onto reruns of the World Series of Poker (which inexplicably, never get old).

In their defense, the studio hosts have a lot of air time to fill. But that doesn’t mean they should get off easy; we deserve occasional acuity from these “experts.” Pick the Bills to beat the Cowboys, the 49ers to beat the Colts. This is the NFL: timing and circumstance matter. As is proven every year, any team can lose on any given Sunday. Tell us when and why something unlikely might happen.

Make a bold prediction for crying out loud.

And to show you that I’m not merely an arm-chair quarterback who rants from my (barely visible) soap box, here’s a bold prediction for you: the 2008 Super Bowl will feature BOTH Manning brothers. How about that for a humdinger.

Here’s why it could happen.

Admittedly, Dallas appears to be the class of the NFC, even when considering Romo’s 5 INT performance against Buffalo. That being said, the Giants are capable of beating the Cowboys. Heck, they might not have to face them.

The Giants’ offense has proven capable of scoring in bunches: a huge plus in the playoffs. Plaxico Burress is playing like a 22 year-old. The return of Brandon Jacobs, coupled with the effectiveness of Derrick Ward, means the Giants will have two legitimate running options down the stretch against banged up defenses.

And then there’s Eli.

His slightly-separated shoulder in Week 1 was the best thing that ever happened to him. The following week Eli went from being Peyton’s paltry little brother to a disciple of Rocky IV (the guy who trains in Siberia and fights through the pain). Simultaneously, when Eli’s arm refused to stay in the sling, the New York fans did a 180 and decided to set up shop in his corner (we want Eli on that wall; we need Eli on that wall).

Five years from now, if Eli is still playing well, this minor injury will be remembered as the turning point of his career.

On the defensive side, the Giants’ 4 – 3 must have scored a truck load of ecstasy after Week 3: these guys are suddenly FLYING to the ball. Twelve sacks against the Eagles – flat out ridiculous. Granted, their secondary is questionable (Medicare eligible Sam Madison and rookie Aaron Ross). But nobody said bold predictions were gonna come easily.

The Giants’ record is currently 3 – 2 with three games before their bye: at Atlanta, San Francisco at home, and at Miami. Not exactly the upper echelon of the NFL. Making 6 – 2 a realistic goal going into their Nov. 11 home game against Dallas.

The Cowboys play New England and Minnesota at home, then Philadelphia on the road. Good chance they’ll lose one of those games; wouldn’t be surprised if they lost twice. In other words, the Giants/Cowboys game in November could be for the division lead.

Don’t look now, the Giants could host the Cowboys in the playoffs.

Not sold? Here’s another news flash: the NFC blows. You think the Packers sans a running game are going to make the Super Bowl? Jason Campbell and the Redskins? Anyone who mentions the Bears or Saints should have their vitals checked. If Texas and the eastern seaboard get nuked, maybe the Seahawks. Conceivably the Eagles or Cardinals if e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g were to fall in place.

The NFC front-runner is Dallas. Deservingly so. But come playoff time, Eli’s three extra years of experience over Romo could be hhhhuge. Don’t overlook the Giants for a second.

In the AFC, I can’t for the life of me explain how a defending Super Bowl champ with one of the best QBs in the history of the NFL wins its first five games and gets downgraded to second-class status this quickly. The fans and sportscasters (there they are again) overnight migration to, and relentless worship of, the Patriots deserves its own chapter in modern mythology.

Yes, Belichick’s boys are decidedly improved. And they have blitzkrieged through five games. But the combined record of the teams the Pats have beaten is downright laughable: 6 – 13 (31.5%). Three of those victories came against teams which specialize in field hockey (the Bills, Jets, & Browns).

Let’s not uncork the Patriots’ bubbly just yet.

Personally, I think the Pats & Colts would be deserving co-favorites for the Super Bowl, except in reality the advantage has to belong to the team with home field advantage in the playoffs. Checking their schedules, the remaining home games for both teams look innocent enough. Meanwhile, New England has four tough road games remaining: Dallas, Indy (!), Baltimore, and the Giants. The Colts’ remaining road games of note are: Jacksonville, Carolina, San Diego, & Baltimore.

Advantage Colts.

Importantly, if the Colts and Pats have the same record at season’s end, home field advantage will belong to the winner of their game on November 4th (at Indy).

Advantage Colts.

Nonetheless, the Patriots are currently 2 - 1 to win the Super Bowl on TradeSports while the Colts are 5.5 - 1. Personally, I think these odds are within a standard deviation of ABSURD. If nothing else, that spread should narrow over the course of the season. If the Colts beat the Patriots in November, that spread will decrease a ton. Which is also to admit that I love the Colts’ current value.

And if I love the Colts at 5.5 - 1, how do you think I feel about the Giants at 65-1?!?!?! If the Giants win two of their next three games, their odds will go down. If they win all three, they might be 20-1 (providing an opportunity to sell, tripling your money).

Hear that song playing in the background? If not, turn up your hearing aid and start spreading the news:

“I wanna be a part of it, New York, New York.”

To be sure, this entry should denote that I never took to the Smith Barney slogan ("We do things the old fashioned way; we earn it"). Rather, I side with Fast Eddie Felsen in The Color of Money believing that, “money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

And therein lies the beauty of bold predictions. It’s a chance to put your money where your mouth is with sights on a generous return. And if that prediction comes to fruition, by all means, wear your favorite NFL jersey to the bar and dissect the X’s and O’s of your brilliance ad nauseam. That right comes with bold predictions and bold predictions alone.

CBS & Fox: please take note.