Talk Derby to Me

The Dogwoods are blooming, steamboats are preparing to race, and at Churchill Downs, souvenir glasses are being stuffed with six-inch mint leaves and fist-sized balls of ice ("Mint Jewel-Up").

It's Derby week. Christmas in May. And the greatest two minutes in sports are a mere five days away.

I love everything about Louisville this week. From The Mini (i.e. the Derby festival's half-marathon) to the Great Balloon Race to the chuck wagon vendors selling every edible fit for a grill. I also love knowing that 100,000 people will take to Churchill Downs on Friday for the Oaks, the hometown version of the Derby.

Louisville natives have played hookey on Friday for decades but their secret is finally getting out: there's no reason to wait for the colts (on Saturday) when the fillies are just as grand.

I could go on and on about the festivities and the pageantry, but there was plenty of that in last year's entries. Today, there's business before us: it's time to start dissecting this year's race.

Last year featured one of the deepest fields in recent memory. And three legitimate superstars –- Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin' -- crossed the wire one, two, three. Racing enthusiasts can only hope this Derby will compare.

On paper, it doesn't appear likely.

If last year's theme was "depth," this might be the year of the Irish: this crop is awfully green. The contenders look more like juveniles (a juvenile = a two-year old) -- raw, irritable and inconsistent -- than three year-old's blossoming into form. And inherently, that makes this a tough race to handicap.

But to the victors go the spoils, and my gut says this year the spoils will include a lot of Benjamins. And trust me, there's nothing like leaving Churchill with a wad of hundos, knowing that Arni's pizza is waiting for you at home.

So let's talk turkey, starting with the favorite, Big Brown.

Admittedly, some people think that Colonel John, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is a potential co-favorite. Ain't gonna happen.

Big Brown could draw the #20 post, and he'd still get the most action at the parimutuel window. Big Brown's trainer Richard Dutrow, known to be a big bettor, has said that he will personally ensure that Big Brown goes off as the favorite -- such is his confidence in his colt.

I'm not sure Dutrow's pockets are that deep. On site wagering for the Derby will be around ten million bucks, with another 100 million or so wagered via simulcast. Regardless of Dutrow's ante, I think Big Brown is a shoe-in to be the top betting choice. If he draws a decent post, I think he'll be a prohibitive favorite. My guess is 5-2 or 2-1 when all is said and done.

And that means that bettors should be contemplating the UPS refrain, "what can Big Brown do for you," and come to the realization: not much. If my odds are correct, a $2 win bet will only pay $6 or $7. And I'd need 4-1 or more to feel decent about jumping on Brown's bandwagon, which I'm not going to get. So I've got to try and beat him.

A task I take on with pleasure.

The Derby is littered with favorites who have wheeled into Churchill Downs as the "now" horse, only to leave muttering about what could have been. Recent casualties include Point Given, Empire Maker, and Bellamy Road. And horses with early speed, like Big Brown, tend to fare even worse.

The Derby is 10 furlongs (a furling is 1/8 of a mile), which is farther than any of these horses have run. And in previous races they faced ten or twelve horses (at most); on Saturday the field is 20. And that means that speed horses -- those with one gear who go straight to the front -- have to work even harder to clear the pack early on. In turn, they often need an extra oxygen tank when they turn for home.

This is probably the toughest race in racing to lead from wire-to-wire, and yet, that's exactly what Big Brown will try to do.

And if that's not enough, there's also a streak our favorite will have to buck. It has been 90 years since a horse with only three prep races has won the Derby. Curlin' is currently the best horse on the planet, but a year ago, his Derby bid fell short. Like Big Brown, he came to Churchill after only three starts.

Is there any reason to think that Big Brown is better today than Curlin' was a year ago? Maybe, but i'm not convinced.

Still, in the same breath let me also admit this: Big Brown is a deserving favorite. He has been awesome in his three starts and dismantled the field in his final prep, the Florida Derby. He overcame a lousy post in that race, and instead of backing up in the stretch, he pulled away from the competition.

Big Brown is already drawing comparisons to the brilliant 1985 Derby champion, Spend a Buck. If he gets loose on the front end Saturday and cruises through the opening half mile, he'll probably make me pay. But for me, the reward just doesn't justify the risk, so let's plan on seeking alternatives.

My other point of interest to kick-off the Derby banter isn't a horse, but a racing surface: "Polytrack." Two years ago a handful of racetracks began switching over to this synthetic surface because it was softer and (theoretically) more supportive for the 1200 lb. thoroughbreds, racing just a shade under 40 mph.

From a handicapping perspective, what you need to know is this: Polytrack is not dirt. And the Derby is run on dirt. Accordingly, success on Polytrack has to be taken with a grain of salt.

And you'd better note the following prospects, whose best races are all on Polytrack: Adriano, Monba, Cowboy Cal, Colonel John, and Behindatthebar. Meanwhile, Pyro's dismal Bluegrass may have been attributable to his not liking the Polytrack at Keeneland; he has been terrific on dirt (more to contemplate).

Not that I'll be shunning all the Polytrackers; Adriano will get some of my pesos. The good news: I'll implicitly get more bang for buck on Adriano because bettors will be skeptical of his ability on dirt. And you know what, the skeptics may be right; I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a clunker. But I'm still willing to roll the dice.

My final nugget for your consideration as we settle into my favorite week of the year: Derby payouts are big. Sometimes moderately big. Sometimes extremely big.

A $2 winning trifecta bet paid out the following amounts for the last five Derbys: $440 ('07), $11,418 ('06), $66,657 ('05), $987 ('04), and $665 ('03). That means the five year average is over $15K for a $2 bet.

Moral to the story: grab a mint julep, get in line to bet, and prepare to play a bunch of trifecta wheels.

One of them might pay for a Winnebago.