The Annual Hundo

This day needs no introduction. Let’s get down to business.

As mentioned on Monday, this is going to be one tough race to bet, so I won't be surprised (at all) if my tri wheel comes up empty handed. BUT, I'm going to play a combination that will pay a redonkulous amount if it comes to frution: got a feeling it's gonna be one of those days. Then I’ll back up my big wheel with a few exactas and by circling a few horses on their own.

Churchill beckons so without further adieu, here’s my run-down of the entrants and an overview of how I’m likely to dish out my 100 bones. Enjoy the coverage on ESPN and NBC.

1) Cool Coal Man
Was last seen lolly-gagging with Pyro towards the rear of the Bluegrass; I think it’s safe to say he didn’t take to the Polytrack. Owns a couple of solid Beyer’s and his Fountain of Youth would have you believe he belongs. He has the right running style for the Derby, but the added distance is a question. Not convinced he’s at the top of his game either.

I’ve already got Coal in a Derby Future Pool at 25-1, which offers me a hedge if I leave him out of my trifecta wheels. Overall, skeptical of this fossil fuel. Not a Red Cent (NRC).

2) Tale of Ekati
Ekati beat the Juvenile Champ, War Pass, to win the Wood four weeks ago. But that race ain’t what it used to be. And they came home incredibly slowly that day – over 41 seconds for the final three furlongs.

Hasn’t run a good race outside of New York and not convinced that’s about to change. Willing to walk away empty handed if it does. NRC.

3) Anak Nakal
Was full-steam ahead at the end of ’07, but hasn’t lived up to the hype in ’08. I think “anak nakal” must translate to “drinks lots of Bud Heavies” in Malay, because there’s really no explaining his abysmal record this year.

If you’re looking for an angle on a longshot, there are a couple of plays: 1) his best race was at Churchill and 2) I doubt Zito would bring Anak to Kentucky just to check out the Spires. A couple of legitimate pluses for somebody who’ll be 75-1. But I can’t jump onboard someone who hasn’t hit the board all year. NRC.

4) Court Vision
There are only a few “knowns” in this Derby. Amongst them: Big Brown is going straight to the front of the pack, and Court Vision is going straight to the rear. This guy starts off really slow.

But that’s not all bad in a ten furlong race that packs a lot of heat on the front end. And if you’re gonna try and circle the field, you’d prefer to save ground early. To that end, the #4 post is about as good as it gets.

He has only run twice in ‘08, which I like with a longshot: there could be untapped potential in the tank. Owns a bullet workout over the Churchill track, has never missed the board, adds blinkers for the big one, and Mott is one of my favorite trainers. That’s a lot to like for somebody who figures to be 18-1.

He may not steal all the marbles, and if the track stays muddy, it certainly won’t help his cause. If it hardens up, could definitely envision him nabbing a piece. In other words, my pesos start here.
5) Eight Belles
Every Derby deserves a filly; it’s more fun when a girl tries to beat the boys. And this year we’ve got a live one: Eight Belles is no slouch. One of a select grouping in here that own a 100 Beyer, and you can’t knock her record either: she hasn’t been beat this year.

When you consider the mediocrity of this group of colts, I can’t fault her connections for bypassing the Oaks in favor of the Derby. Her stablemate ran huge yesterday, and Belles appears the better of the two.

On the flip side, she’s never run more than 8.5 furlongs and never seen pace like this. Only three fillies in 133 years have come home first, and I’m not convinced the stars are aligned for a fourth. Will likely play a few sidebets in case history proves me wrong but planning to focus my dinero elsewhere.

6) Z Fortune
Asmussen has been chatting up this guy’s talent all spring, but Z didn’t show a lick of it until April. Finally came to life in the Arkansas Derby four weeks ago, but you sure would have liked to see him pass Gayego – the race was Z’s for the taking.

Has already raced five times since December which is a little much for my liking. But that 102 Beyer at Oaklawn shouldn’t be overlooked. He also lands one of the hottest jockeys on the planet in Albarado.

Another one that I bet in the Derby Future pool, so I’ve got an insurance policy in case he bests the stampede. Can’t figure out what else to do with him. A very tough call.

7) Big Truck
Played the spoiler in the Tampa Bay Derby when War Pass bonked. That race was Truck’s fourth straight Beyer improvement, but like several others in here, his progress hit the wall in Lexington.

Another trainer who doesn’t typically send colts to Kentucky just to be part of the festivities. Also figures to get an ideal, stalking trip, so the only real question is class. Not sure he can beat this crop, but he will reward backers at a huge price if he does.

Derby wagers pay for Winnebagos because unexpected things happen, and this guy fits the bill. Worth a little love in the bottom of my exotics with sights on a payout with four zeros.

8) Visionaire
The twelve hole is a terrible post for a nine furlong race at Keeneland, and he ended up ten-wide in the stretch (virtually unheard of). So from my perch his Bluegrass wasn’t that bad. Two impressive wins this year, one of which was in the mud, and his late running style figures to be a plus. We also know Matz can get a horse to fire at Churchill; he won with Barbaro two years ago.

Leczano will have to do a better job of saving ground this time around, but if he can, I think Visionaire’s capable of nabbing a piece. More good news: he’s a virtual lock to be underbet.

Similar to Court Vision, I have trouble envisioning him winning it all. But we’re in need of three spots for our trifecta, and I could certainly see him 2nd or 3rd. Planning to include in my wheels.

9) Pyro
We’ve come to this year’s pi entrant: this guy is impossible to solve. But he's a monstrous talent and should come charging; I could certainly envision him wearing roses.

His supporters will throw out his Bluegrass, blaming it on the Poly. I’m tempted to do the same, but his performance that day was so darn bad. The two he beat in the Risen Star have both made it to Kentucky (Z Fortune and Visionaire), but the Louisiana Derby field was one part claimer, three parts jalopy. In other words he hasn't beat much in three months.

Can’t make him the focal point of my wheeling and dealing; can’t fathom leaving him out. A serious factor.

10) Colonel John
He got his act together in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby and ran down BobBlackJack at the wire. If it wasn’t for the final furlong of that race, he’d be 15-1. As is, he’s the second choice in the morning line.

Backers will tell you he’s breed for the distance and should get plenty of pace to run at with Big Brown blazing away on the front. Also, his works in the morning would have you believe he loves the Churchill track. Skeptics will say he hasn’t beaten much, has a mediocre top Beyer, and hasn’t run on dirt.

The Derby is about picking the right horses and looking for value; he certainly doesn’t represent the latter. But in a race this wide open can’t omit a talent like this who likes the local surface. Deserving of attention.

11) Z Humor
This guy has been improving all spring and another move forward in him could nab him a piece. But Humor has been away from the winner’s circle all of ’08, so I’m willing to pass today and see if he blossoms farther down the road. NRC.

12) Smooth Air
His Florida Derby was one of the strongest races on paper all spring but few will take notice because Big Brown was also in the race (and much the best). Air figures to be in perfect position in this one, but that doesn’t mean we should jump onboard.

Of all the entrants, this guy’s connections worry me the most. Bennie Stutts trains and Manollo Cruz will ride: never heard of either of ‘em. And this colt was fighting a fever and questionable to run when the week began.

Under other circumstances would have considered him a live longshot. As it is, I’m looking for cleaner air. NRC.

13) Bob Black Jack
The first of the speed horses with the rest of the early petrol sitting to his outside. Bob ran the opening quarter under 21 seconds in a six furlong race in January, so he’s certainly capable of fighting Big Brown for the lead if he so chooses. Hoping he does.

He might be a world-class miler, but at 10 furlongs I’m not inclined to double down: this is an incredibly tough spot to stretch beyond your (seeming) best distance. NRC.

14) Monba
Never a factor in the Fountain of Youth, but that didn’t stop Pletcher from entering him in the Bluegrass where he won at 9-1. He got the perfect, stalking trip that day and then snuck by Cowboy Cal on Keeneland’s Poly. Not sure how much praise that deserves.

This guy has plenty of talent and figures worth watching as his career progresses, but there’s something about him that doesn’t sit well with me, and Prado’s defection to Adriano is more than enough to push me over the top: NRC.

15) Adriano
Taking the same route to Churchill as last year’s runner-up, Hard Spun; they both won the Lane’s End as their final prep. Adriano won going away at Turfway and looked impressive doing it, but that was on Poly, and plenty of horsemen think he’s really bred for the turf (not the dirt).

A major talent and wouldn’t be shocked if he’s in contention down the stretch. If he takes to the dirt, the sky is the limit. If not, he’ll likely end up in the rear. Willing to play a side bet in case he fires, will pay handsomely if he does.

16) Dennis of Cork
Uncorked a monster rally to capture the Southwest at Oaklawn, then flopped at even-money in the Illinois Derby. But his connections never wavered on sending him to Kentucky after the Hawthorne stinker, which means they think he belongs.

And instead of resting Denis after Illinois they marched him straight to Churchill, where he’s been working superbly over the local track. He gets Borel in the irons who won the Derby last year on a colt with an eerily similar running style (Street Sense). And this lightly-raced son of also has a win over the Churchill track.

Most of Saturday’s entrants come with question marks; this guy is no different. When you’re looking for longshots in the Derby you have to ask whether his best day could be good worthy of the roses. Inclined to think yes…..and at price. My KEY player.

17) Cowboy Cal
The Bluegrass was his first race off turf, and he passed that test with flying colors. But he set incredibly slow fractions in Lexington and got away with an easy lead. The going won’t be slow on Saturday, and he won’t have the lead (two strikes, three and you’re out).

You have to respect the connections and his driver is as good as they come. But I just can’t envision this race shaping up for him; I’d be shocked if he nabbed a piece. NRC.

18) Recapture the Glory
Lead from wire-to-wire at Hawthorne when Cork mailed it in and earned a big Beyer for his effort. But that track factors early speed in a big time way, and he won’t get to the lead today. All the pace sits around him as well, which makes it that much more likely that he’ll have to press or settle back. Knowing his running style, neither of those sound promising to me. Would be shocked if he recaptured anything other than a post-race walk to the barn. NRC.

19) Gayego
This colt ran 6 ½ furlongs in 1:13 flat as a two-year old, so we know he can crank up the RPMs. He also proved capable of coming from off the pace in those early starts, and that’ll be a requisite today with Big Brown in the mix. Deserves a lot of credit for holding on to win in Arkansas; the 103 Beyer jumps off the page.

Still not convinced this is his preferred distance and there’s a decent chance he’ll be stalking a suicidal clip. Plus, he’s starting in the auxiliary gate with all the speed in the race, hardly ideal.

This colt is a gamer and if he can clear the field with Big Brown, they might finish one, two. If that happens I’ll walk away content and penniless, because it’s not the angle I’m gonna play. Say “adieu” to another player who will draw coinage at the window; start looking at Winnebagos with stainless steel. NRC.

20) Big Brown
Some horses have tactical speed; some horses have “real” speed (if they want the lead, they get the lead). Big Brown leaves the gate like a torpedo firing from a missile silo. I think he’ll get the lead.

In actuality, this superfreak hasn’t even met a competitor yet; the other entrants have been that far behind him in his three starts. He’s also got a terrific trainer in Dutrow who has been emphatic in stating he thinks this colt will win. Throw in Desormeaux, a jockey who has won this before, and there’s a boat load to like.

But Winnebagos don’t start with a big favorite, and this is one tough race to wire ‘em – more so from the #20 hole. I’ll hope history holds and this three-time starter can’t buck the 90-year trend. Will include is some wheels, but his odds and post position don’t warrant more.

$1 tri wheel: 9, 10, & 16 with 4, 8, 9, 10, 16 with 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 16, 20 ($72)
$1 exacta wheel 9, 10, & 20 with 4, 8, and 16 ($9)
$4 win on 16
$8 show on 16
$2 win on 15
$5 show on 4