$100 in Pebbles......

Betting the Derby is like standing on the continental divide: you’d better be prepared to jump whenever the ground shifts. Said another way, predictability has no place. You’ve got to change tactics from year-to-year and be willing to rearrange your preferences right up until post-time (pending track conditions).

This year’s Derby requires even more adeptness. Foremost, it’s the deepest field I’ve ever seen. Making matters more difficult, there’s no clear-cut candidate for the lead, also making it tough to predict how quick the early fractions will be. Finally, several usable entrants will be far back early and need luck to navigate through the twenty-horse field (potentially on a sloppy track, when making up ground gets even more difficult).

In summary: we're equipped with a slingshot and Goliath awaits.

But if you’re thinking about turning back now, don’t. Kid Rock and the out-of-towners will favorably influence the odds. And because it's such a large field, and screwy things always happen, every winning exacta or trifecta wager will pay-out somewhere in between “large” and “let’s buy a Winnebago.”

It's well worth taking aim with a rubber band and a few pebbles.

Below you'll find my run-down for the entire field. After that, I've listed $100 of wagers. I’m guessing the track condition will be good and not sloppy. By putting this in writing, I’m more/less guaranteed to make all of these bets (regardless of how the weather unfolds; I might bet more if it pours). I don’t think I could live with myself if I posted this for the masses, had it nailed, and then didn’t buy the ticket. That would be a Wrigley Field bruise (hurt for a millennium). So there, now you’ve done your part.

1) Sedgefield
I like it when trainers opt for unconventional methods (remember Forty Niner’s 7 furlong prep leading to a 2nd-place finish at Churchill?). This colt tried the turf four weeks ago, only two weeks after the Lane’s End, and now he’s back on the dirt for the Derby. That’s highly unconventional. Unfortunately, I can’t fan the fire – think he’s in way over his head. Not a red cent (NRC).

2) Curlin
Reminds me of Bernardini in every respect. Can run from the front or rate, has a ton of talent, and puts horses away with an eerie and awesome ease. The knocks: only three lifetime races, and he hasn’t faced much competition. It has been 90 years since a horse with only three lifetime races won the Derby -- quite a precedent to buck. The other bummer: he will be a main attraction at the window. Still, if a horse has the perfect running style for the Derby and looks like a megastar in the making, would you throw him out? Me neither. Major player.

3) Zanjero
A winning $2 trifecta in the Derby often returns over $10,000. Knowing our collection bucket has to anticipate some unknowns, why not include Zanjero? He has a win over the Churchill track (big plus). Hasn’t missed the board since his first race (another plus). He was incredibly game in the Bluegrass, beaten by just a head. Enough races under his belt to be seasoned, but not so many that we can’t hope for more upside. Asmussen will have him primed; might get him at 35-1. He’ll need some luck, but winnebago-sized payouts normally do. Good enough for inclusion in some of my wheels.

4) Storm in May
Impressive six furlong race in January. Wait a minute, that’s his sell point? I surrender. NRC.

5) Imawildandcrazyguy
Would be killer to hear this guy’s name late in the race. NBC should have Steve Martin on standby just in case (And Down the Stretch They Come, it’s Imawildandcrazyguy!!!!). Unfortunately, for that to happen the other 19 saddles are gonna need some lead. NRC.

6) Cowtown Cat
The most intriguing horse in the race. Was running 6 & 1/2 furlong races two months. Not sure he wants to go a mile and quarter, but there are a lot of positives. Won the Gotham. Moved forward in the Illinois Derby and picked up the 19 year-old Panamanian sensation, Fernando Jara (Invasor’s regular jockey). Pletcher trains. Bullet workout on the 21st . Should be in great position near the front. If nobody wants the lead, he could (and probably should) try to wire ‘em. An Illinois Derby champ on the front at a price (probably 20-1): anyone else having flashbacks to War Emblem?

A warning before you cash-in your 401K for a horse named Cowtown: I jumped onboard Sweetnorthernsaint last year, another that tried the Illinois to Kentucky route. He is still running.

Not dissuaded. Start the whispers now, “here kitty, kitty.”

7) Street Sense
Talk about a handful. Won the BC Juvenile at Churchill last fall by a record margin. That race was even more impressive in person (Arazi-like). One of my favorite trainers in Nafzger; trumped only by the fact that Borel will ride (the guy is scary good at Churchill). The horse obviously loves the track, and he’s been pointing for this race since he crossed the BC wire. Throw in a sizzling workout over the track last week & add it all up: Sense is guaranteed to be the talk of the Downs.

Ironically, the hype may also his biggest negative: he won’t offer much value (my guess is 7-2). That’s a short price for a colt that will be back in the pack early. Not to mention, he got a mythical trip along the rail in the Juvenile. The same will not happen today. And this time he has to pass even more entrants; an average trip through traffic and he might be running for 2nd or 3rd.

Can’t fault anyone who backs him with all their lunch money. A major player in my wheels. His early positioning and implied odds have me shying away from the whole kit and caboodle.

8) Hard Spun
I liked Spun a lot more on Sunday. Monday he ran a 5f workout in a freakish 57 3/5 seconds. Too quick for my liking five days before the toughest race of his career. Perhaps the rookie trainer/jockey combo of Larry Jones and Mario Pino didn’t get the memo: the Derby is on Saturday (not Monday). Beyond the questions marks surrounding the newbies, there’s another concern: most of the horses Spun has faced appear to be genetic descendents of turtles.

The good news: if you can get comfortable with the aforementioned, there’s a lot to like. He has won 5-of-6 races going away. His best Beyer is comparable to Curlin. He’s more seasoned than Curlin. He’ll be around 15-1 (Curlin will be 3-1). And he’s been hanging around Churchill for a month.

Tough to love the whole package, but the pluses are undeniable. Have the piñatas on standby in Delaware just in case. A factor.

9) Liquidity
Was bet down to 3-1 in the Santa Anita Derby and came home 4th. Seems like an unlikely candidate to be in this race, as the added distance doesn’t figure to help. O’Neil wouldn’t bring him just to check out the Spires; maybe the owners like juleps. Or they know something we don't. Backers will find plenty to liquidate if he can hit the board. But I just can’t find enough to like. NRC.

10) Teufelsberg
After being allowed to set the slowest fractions in the history of thoroughbred racing, he still couldn’t hold them off in the Bluegrass. Throw in another twelve horses and faster fractions, his prospects get exponentially wurser (correct spelling). NRC.

11) Bwana’s Bull
Bwana’s gonna wanna chug eight red bulls before this race. That would liven up the paddock. Assuming he doesn’t flugtag and grow wings, NRC.

12) Nobiz Like Showbiz
You either loved his Wood Memorial because he had trouble rating and still went onto win, or you turned a whiter shade of pale contemplating Nobiz’s prospects with twenty horses around him in the Derby. I’m in the latter camp. Plus, I think he’s likely to get more action at the window than he deserves. Can’t bet everybody. NRC.

13) Sam P.
Surprised he’s only 20-1 in the morning line, would have thought higher. The “P” might stand for penultimate: looking for him to finish around 19th. And with those unkind words, he’s now guaranteed to beat half my horses. Either way, NRC.

14) Scat Daddy
This guy is not afraid of a brawl. Love the way he fought them off in the Florida Derby. At Churchill you’ve got to overcome obstacles, and he sure seems capable in that regard. Taking the same route to KY as Barbaro a year ago. On the downside, he’s been all out in three straight races and with remarkably similar Beyers; makes you wonder about his upside. Just not sure his best day will be good enough. My heart wants to include him; my head thinks nay. Scat won’t offer a ton of window value. Inclined to play in some of my exotics but not more.

15 Tiago
This year’s class of Californians is about as lousy a lot as I can remember. This is their champion (having won the Santa Anita Derby). Some things to like. An all-world trainer/jockey combo with Sheriffs and Smith – same duo that teamed up for a Derby victory with Giacomo. He’s improving and has the right running style; another move forward and he could be in the mix. If his odds go up near post-time, or if he’s lightly bet in the show pool, inclined to play a few dollars as a hedge. Generally prefer others.

16) Circular Quay
Was the pre-race talk of the town for the BC Juvenile at Churchill. 2nd that day behind Street Sense’s freakish performance. Needed the Risen Star as a first race back in ‘07. Impressive winner in the Louisiana Derby. Some will question his eight week layoff; I’m not one of them. Will need a good trip through traffic, but luck is always part of the deal. Talented enough to uncork a monster. Should be alongside Street Sense every step of the way. Probably at three times the price. Loving every penny of it.

17) Stormello
Has legitimate early speed. Unfortunately, the rest of the front running crowd starts inside of him; will require a bunch of petrol for him to get clear. Normally brings his A game; just not convinced that will be good enough. NRC.

18) Any Given Saturday
Four weeks ago he was one of the Derby favorites. After an uninspiring Wood Memorial, he’s a much tougher read. Backers will point to his epic duel with Street Sense eight weeks ago and an impressive race at Churchill last fall. Also, he’s never been beaten by more than three lengths, and he’s a candidate to improve. On the down side, not sure he wants the added distance. Closing thought on a mixed bag: I will need more than 12-1 to consider him a value; planning to include in my wheels.

19 Dominican
Was gelded this spring and has been all business since. Won the Rushaway easily, despite traffic problems, then went to Lexington and played spoiler in the Bluegrass. The opening fractions were obese that day, but he passed Street Sense, Teufelsburg, Great Hunter, and Zanjero to nab the win. A feat that should not be taken lightly.

Skeptics will question his Polytrack successes and wonder about his upside off back-to-back bests. To counter: might have the best late kick in the race, and he carries a very capable jockey (who knows Churchill) in a very tricky race.

It’s a lot to ask from the #19 post, but I can’t find a better value play. Call Lone Starr and tell him we’re coming for his winnebago. THE PICK.

20) Great Hunter
This year’s “pi” entrant: impossible to solve. 3rd in the BC Juvenile last fall. Kicked off ‘07 with a G2 win at Santa Anita. Was 2-1 and the co-favorite alongside Street Sense in the Bluegrass, but he got cut off in the lane and ended up 5th. Didn’t appear bound for victory that day, but he has a legitimate excuse.

The twenty hole ain’t a plus; Hunter will need some luck not to get caught wide. If he can find a spot, figures to be a notch closer to the pace than Street Sense and Quay, a notch behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Could be ideal?

Another from O’Neil’s camp, bonus points in my book. Shouldn’t be overlooked, but my preferences are getting a little lopsided on the outside. Thinking nay and will cross my fingers. Very tough call.

The window specifics:
Dominican and Circular Quay represent the best value in my opinion. Cowtown and Hard Spun are the wild cards. Inclined to single Cowtown for a little side action. If I had to bet on one horse to be in the money, regardless of the odds, it would be Street Sense (hence the extra exacta wheel).

$1 Trifecta wheel: 2, 7, 16, 19 with 6, 8, 12, 14, with 2, 7, 16 & 19 ($48)
$1 Exacta wheel 2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 14, 15 with 16 & 19 ($14)
$1 Exacta wheel 2, 6, 8, 12, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20 with 7 ($9)
$4 win & $8 show on 19 ($12)
$3 win & $6 show on 16 ($9)
$3 across the board on 6 ($9)